Hello traders and investors! Let’s update our thoughts on the SPX, as it has been a while since my last analysis on it.
First, the index triggered a bear trend since it lost the support at 4,073. The downtrend was sharp, however, we must pay attention to some key points.
First, we have three gaps – the first one was already filled today. Second, after many days trading below the 21 ema, the index is finally breaking it again, and we are trading above it. Third, we have a key point at 3,810 (purple line), as this price level worked as a support/resistance multiple times in the past, and since we are under this price, this is supposed to be our next resistance.
The index is still bearish, and despite the reversal signs it is giving, a true confirmation would come if we break the purple line. In that case, I see the index filling the last two gaps. If it fails, then it’ll just resume the trend, and seek the 3,600 again.
The volume is finally starting to increase, and the daily chart suggests a retest of the 21 ema in the next few days. If that’s true, we’ll break the 3,810 line, triggering a short-term reversal.
However, we don’t see any bullish reversal structure for the mid-term, therefore, we must be patient. Remember that since the SPX dropped more than 20% from its last peak, we are in a bear market, officially, and trends persist until a clear reversal occurs (Dow Theory).
Let’s see how the SPX will react when it hits our key points. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
I am short but I am imagining an inverted head and shoulder developing so also hoping for a solid rejection at 3810-- not giving me a good feeling -- ""good feeling"" = important new technical indicator...
DaddySawbucks
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Spot on ty 4post: "trends persist until a clear reversal occurs (Dow Theory)."
Nathan_Black
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@DaddySawbucks, Thanks, man! Yes, I would rather be safe than sorry in moments like this!