This could mean nothing but just two graphs that are identical so far without any future relevance whatsoever. The risk of a 45% drop is low considering our labor market but we never know what kind of news is waiting to come out to trigger such an horrific event. But if this graph says anything about the future, next couple of weeks we are going to see the last rally to 430-440 range before capitulation down 45%. I know that sounds very unrealistic and there is no way anyone could predict such a huge crash. But knowing how TA works as a self-fulfilling prophecy, and recent bearish sentiment which is comparable to 2008, I suggest everyone hedge their portfolios and be prepared just in case. You'll never regret playing this game safe.
On the surface they do look shockingly similar however the big difference is in the details of the structures. 2008 had a clear 5 wave move down off the high. 2022 is a 3 wave zig zag affair down. 2008 did not have a 3 wave zig zag correction pattern up like we did in Feb & March this year. The entire structure of 2022 since the Jan high looks corrective. A series of three wave zig zag moves so far. So far the only 5 wave move we have is the move down we're just completing...... What that mean? We either have a more complex corrective structure to complete or as absurd as it sounds at this point....a new ATH high is in store. That's blasphemy at this point I know. Crucify me. Or.....I could be wrong and we just tank... but I don't think so.
Realamh
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@oliverrathbun, You think like 1980's that's very possible too.
oliverrathbun
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@Realamh, My chart doesn't go back that far ha ha. Everything suggest we've completed the bull run from the 2009 low I'm on board with that. The question at hand do we go straight down from here or do we put in a more complex top? I think we do. NDX has a different structure so there could be some divergence between the two.
oliverrathbun
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@Realamh, I see the 1980 monthly duh... Yes... something like that
oliverrathbun
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@Realamh, BTW thanks for the revelation that you can invert these charts. That's enlightening.
@Realamh, One more thing. I lived through 1980-1982 that TOTALLY sucked. I have to think we're in for something similar handing out all that cash during 2020. What did they think was going to happen...brilliant
DaddySawbucks
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yes it's astonishing. look for capitulation drop to 3900 then bull trap rally to 4300 again before the waterfall imo