Based off some fib extensions, trend lines and moving averages, I’m gonna leave this here. Interested if this plays out.
Right now there’s some interesting things going on:
All in all, my prediction is it’s gonna be low and slow, bouts of hope and disappointment- An emotional GD damn roller coaster.
I think this chart shows $1,500 by the end of 2025. Who the hell knows. Could easily go to $5,600 and $3,500 was the bottom in 2022. Good luck.
Right now there’s some interesting things going on:
- Inflation, which I’m pretty sure doesn’t go straight up and down nice and clean- the market does the Hokey Pokey getting from one S/D zone to the other, why not inflation?
- People are in debt, or headed in that general direction. Easy money over the last 10 years, especially in the last 2, has slowed down- Households are tightening and savings are dwindling, but I feel like people aren’t just giving up yet on luxuries to tighten their budgets just yet; They’re probably sticking around thinking what most others are secretly hoping for to themselves, “soft landing”.
- The Fed still has yet to unload their $9T balance sheet. I don’t know about you, but there would need to be a $9T transfer of wealth- any ideas about who those assets are being offloaded to? I could only make an educated guess. Even if the Fed offloads half their balance sheet and introduces more QE, there’s still a $4.5T wealth transfer and more inflation. Might feel like a 10 year game of musical chairs.
- The Fed says they’re going stops raising rates at the 5.5-5.75 rate target and holding them there, which might feel like a soft landing, but will most likely slowly eat into more savings/debt.
- China, enough said. Just kidding- The sh** going on with china is crazy, from the COVID shutdowns, trade issues, supply shortages and increasing labor rates, let’s see where that whole situation goes.
- The Russians and Ukrainians. That’s a tough situation, I really hope that works out. I also feel like Russia and China are close enough politically and geographically that that might turn into something. Also Russia is kinda messing with Europe by cutting off part of their energy/gas- I feel like there’s something there.
- I feel like most people reading this have their back tests and strategies that have performed amazing over the last 20 years, but have been struggling to trade this past year- I think this time has to be different than anything we’ve seen up until now- if “big money” and institutions are seeing a rough decade ahead, It would make sense they’re trying to throw as many false bear and bull flags/ pennants, harmonics, fib extensions and whatever else at all retail: Someone is always left holding the bag. Hell, inflation itself is the tax payer “holding the bag” if you think about it.
- Like Buffet said about betting on the American economy, I think people will be “betting on America” to win and holding the whole way down.
All in all, my prediction is it’s gonna be low and slow, bouts of hope and disappointment- An emotional GD damn roller coaster.
I think this chart shows $1,500 by the end of 2025. Who the hell knows. Could easily go to $5,600 and $3,500 was the bottom in 2022. Good luck.