The S&P500 is reaching the pinnacle of the bearish rising wedge pattern on the weekly chart. We have yet to confirm a local high on the weekly chart however, if we do, this will be the third drive of bearish divergence. It is possible we see a bull trap to retest the upper trendline on the weekly RSI chart first. Watch the trendlines for possible bounce and/or reversal opportunities.
I hope that you are correct, as I share your sentiment. As per your drawing, the market is so fat it is squeezing out it's clothing, i.e. it is going higher than your top line. It is time for some weight loss, let the crash begin.
My opinion is that the macro-economic indicators are indicating a crash.
johndustinsloan
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@byronhall1978 agreed. We could see this extend a bit longer but if feels close
byronhall1978
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John, the world has a fever, and the Fed are giving free asprins, which is making markets look healthy and hence moving higher, the problem it that when they remove the asprins, the markets may actually be worse off than when they started supplying them. For as long as the Fed continues to supply asprins, technicals and fundamentals go out the window and markets seem to continue higher.
MADNESS.
johndustinsloan
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@byronhall1978, absolutely! Irrational markets can extend longer than one can stay liquid sometimes. I'm not fully out of the market currently however the SPX is respecting the upper and lower trendlines. We closed just below the upper trendline today. There is a lot of confluence pointing to a reversal at the end of March to early April. It could come sooner or completely ignore all technicals and climb beyond the top out around 4022 that I'm seeing on the wedge pattern. Either way we need to due diligence and plan for whatever the market throws at us.
johndustinsloan
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@byronhall1978, the above chart I noticed is in log. If you convert it back to standard, the confluence does extend out a few more weeks to around end of March with a top out around 4022.
My opinion is that the macro-economic indicators are indicating a crash.