xCal

Going Back in Time

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Last time we had a panic attack like this in the market was arguably back in October-Nov 2018. Now I know things don't always happen the exact same way but why did we come up with chart analysis if it had 0 meaning or use? It isn't superstition. It is a tool.

To train in chart analysis we often put our selves in situations that have happened before but we "remove" the future information. Basically look at what we have so far, make a prediction, then unveil what has happened in the past to see if we were right. Try to imagine you are back in this time before the final big dip. Would you see "double bottom"? I try to see what I haven't seen yet. Arguably should not be done more than 2 steps ahead because let's be honest NO ONE can even predict the next step perfectly. But, this kind of foresight can be as helpful as much as it can be BLINDING. So, it takes a good level head and careful consideration of all factors.

For me it is a large variation of information. Like learning a language or how to play an instrument and read music. Communication doesn't stop at mere words on paper do they? No they are spoken. Words are not merely spoken though either are they? No, they are spoken with certain inflection and meaning. Body language also follows.

My point is that I believe chart analyses is more closely related to language than it is mathematics or statistics. Is is a language that is spoken by not bears or bulls but all of both at the same time. We learn the words, then we learn how to speak the words, then we learn the meaning of the words, then the letters, then how to read the words, then how to form the words, then finer communication details such as body language and voice inflection.

I don't know if this is helpful to anyone. But, I know that like many things as complicated as communication it comes easier with practice and failing better next time.

During this time-frame shown above, it appears that there was a bigger picture. I don't even know if people were calling for a double bottom during this time. But could they? Sure. Was it? Certainly not. Does that mean we currently do NOT have a double bottom? No. What it does mean although is that you could challenge your way of interpretation to get a better idea for the right answer next time.

Trade Safe and always DYOR
Cal
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