The second outcome is the double dip. I give the double dip a 35% chance because as stated above the Fed might take extreme measures to give false synthetic support to the market that has never been done before. Also Chart Structural wise it could make sense to have less of an extreme fall on the next sell off and we could find support at the bottom of the channel. Another reason I weighted this possibility to 1/3 is if in the case we get back to work sooner than we think and enough small businesses don't go under and the unemployment rate of 60 million quickly becomes less and with the fed synthetic stimulus and life getting back to normal buyers might come in around the time we reach the bottom of the channel support.
The third outcome is a market depression. I give this a 60% chance because everything that has been building up from the past will come to light. Poor and fake synthetic market corrections with the fed always relying on dropping interest rates printing money and has been a ticking time bomb to pop eventually and this is the perfect storm to make it happen. 60 million Americans are expected to be out of work which like I said before is 30% to the great depression's 25%. Banks will have to be bailed out for 2nd time in 12 years small business will go under and there is pretty much nothing the fed can do because interest rates are already at 0% as they were just before the great depression. In 2008 we were at least able to drop rates from 5% to 0% interest rates have stayed low through this entire synthetic market bull run. Unless some weird new crooked policy from the FED comes out I really don't see this going any other way. If our economic markets never had new synthetic policy's this would be weighted a lot higher. Also the virus can be easy scapegoat to finally let the market crash and reset and not continue the madness of synthetic market stimulus. Good luck out there hope everyone is doing alright through the madness that is going on.
Oil fall below $10 - Check