This past weeks bear breaking counter trend US stock market rally back up the totem pole was enough for even hard core big money bears to throw in the towel, and to more importantly "cry uncle".
As noted in my last update, the stock market is taking strongly and usually reliable short term bearish technical patterns, and busting them to the upside. That's the trap.
My long term chart work this week reveals that the S=P 500, is now exceedingly "close" like a clock that's been pushed forward against its will,... to a rapid, and potentially sharp descent.
A Weekly Triangle Upside Technical Breakout Pattern in 1987 ultimately was "the hook" that trapped both bulls and bears at historic highs before a market crash.
Fair warning. Once the market starts down,.., you won't be able to stop it.
As a vaccine cure is now promised to all Americans, a stock market" cure " will ultimately come in an almost blindsided attack that almost certainly will catch most.. looking in the absolute "wrong" direction.
Oh, guys, I am with you. I am with you. And yet it occurs to me that until I - and maybe you - also all give up, and the “last bear has folded”, only THEN can the fall begin.
It also occurs to me that the one thing which I think will certainly bring it to an end is if I go long. Oh yes, then the market will turn for sure.
So let me put a long order on the docket, and that should accelerate the inevitable.
thing123
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@YouCannotBeSerious, I was thinking the same thing. I went long last week and it CRASHED, then I sold after it bounced (broke even) and it went UP even MORE. LOL
I think the only way to win is to make make bets buying long or short at close and unloading (hopefully with profit) the next day (or buy long/short and sell same day).
They are making it impossible to "buy and hold" long or short.
supere
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Lol. I've folded multiple times already in theory. A 1987 style drop three degrees higher in Elliott magnitude seems about the only thing that will stop this dragon train now as every little drop has almost negligible impact on the mania.
Fractal777
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Good content Unwind!
Most won't see what's coming as the towels hit the floor.
The vaccine agenda is no cure, but a wolf in sheeps clothing.
We are in no mans land...almost zombies without critical thinking.
The explosives are planted, just waiting for the trigger.
Every market crash in history has had a Hindenburg Omen on the clock and within four months max.
We are in position now.
ProfitHarvest
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Tell me about it haha, it's now in a Double Top pattern though so hasn't busted them all yet...
Give it time..
Thank you for the chart.
Pattern risk, with indicators diverging is dangerously high.
Marketmakerz
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One day your idea might be right, getting closer but an awful lot of wrong calls.
poister198
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Believe generally things are not better than pre-covid, but like @z3m25 said, better not to fight trend.
Underlying reason i believe is TINA, and in terms of price relative to money supply(price per dollar of available money in market), it is still comparable to pre-covid. No reason to believe a drop in price is imminent
Unless maybe if an asteroid hits wall st. Rofl
StevenBrooks
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Nice Analysis... I believe a healthy correction will begin in about a month from this point. I feel the SPX needs to break above 4000 before we see any meaningful sell off. The Nasdaq should remain weak as the SPX makes all time highs again. At which point my target on the SPX will be 3520 and 11,480 on the NDX.
z3m25
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Since people began "screaming uncle" back in June because we were "over-bought" I've made a killing on swings to the upside, the market would have to drop and skip over my stops at about 50% at this point for me to lose money. Trying to predict the top without elliot waves is a fools errand. We will surely see 4,200+ before the next sizable pullback and then 5-6000 before we drop 80%. The market is an emotion guage, just because the p/e averages 15 over the longterm or whatever it is, doesn't mean it can't and will hit a p/e of 5 and 35. Find a system, stick with it, use your stops and don't fight the trend, it's futile. I even got into the "this is the top" mind set for a while, F that noise, it's just that, NOISE. Trade the swings, trade the charts, turn off the news.
It also occurs to me that the one thing which I think will certainly bring it to an end is if I go long. Oh yes, then the market will turn for sure.
So let me put a long order on the docket, and that should accelerate the inevitable.