SPX [TECHNICALS & FUNDAMENTALS] rally to Feb 15 at $2800
TECHNICALS - Gann fans and Fib retracements show us going on one more run. On an Eliot count, we can still be working on the 5th wave up. And take a closer look at the top 10 largest stocks... they all have room to go on one more run. Also, we didn't get a sharp dip from the 618 ($2720), suggesting we have room to keep going. Stoch is overbought, RSI is overbought (almost...), but if we stay flat on Tuesday Feb 5 we can work some of this off, and gap higher Wednesday at open. When we finally hit the 2800-28200 fib level, expect to see an impulse touch and sharp fall - similar to how Amazon touched the 618 at $1730 before consolidating.
FUNDAMENTALS - Trump state of the union will be boring... why would he declare a national emergency? That's his last card. He will wait until Feb 15 to do that. Dems have no rush to make a deal bc they want to secure the 2020 election by driving Trumps into defeat. Feb 15 checks all the boxes on the technical projections. I think the Mueller subpoena is supposed to be around Feb 15 too. The jobs report was good, J Powell's dovishness was good. The general public still believes we will keep on rallying in this bull market. Sucker in the last few on this rally to $2800, and drop it hard. Side note- I also look at crypto as a leading indicator to market drops since it is a high-risk sector. BTC looks primed to jump to the top of the ascending triangle before falling as well. We are on thin ice right now though, and the stock market is starting to look (technicals) and feel overstretched. Consider or simply disregard my collection of thoughts here... but definitely proceed with caution.
FUNDAMENTALS - Trump state of the union will be boring... why would he declare a national emergency? That's his last card. He will wait until Feb 15 to do that. Dems have no rush to make a deal bc they want to secure the 2020 election by driving Trumps into defeat. Feb 15 checks all the boxes on the technical projections. I think the Mueller subpoena is supposed to be around Feb 15 too. The jobs report was good, J Powell's dovishness was good. The general public still believes we will keep on rallying in this bull market. Sucker in the last few on this rally to $2800, and drop it hard. Side note- I also look at crypto as a leading indicator to market drops since it is a high-risk sector. BTC looks primed to jump to the top of the ascending triangle before falling as well. We are on thin ice right now though, and the stock market is starting to look (technicals) and feel overstretched. Consider or simply disregard my collection of thoughts here... but definitely proceed with caution.
Comment:
Finally closed above 200DMA today. Going to be a quick burst up to 2800-2820 by EOWeek