Cincinnatuus
Short

SPX Buy The Rumor, Sell the Trade Deal Fact

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
SPX Look Ahead for week starting 12/15/19

The S&P 500 is in long-term Bull Market with price trading above the 50 and 200 and 800 week emas. The 50 week ema is currently up trending, but price is above a long-term trend line , so expect a correction with in the ongoing Bull Market back to the 30 or 50 emas, or the lower uptrend line. Price is following the upper Bollinger Band up, and there is no reason why it won’t just continue going up. If we do get a correction a return to the mean would bring price down to 3050. The doji candle from last week was cancelled by the long green candle from this week, implying higher prices.

We are coming up on the anniversary of the Christmas Eve massacre, when prices bottomed at 2347. Looking at the Elliott Wave pattern we have a 600 point a wave up to 2954. Followed by a triangle or flag b wave, 300 points wide, that ended at 2850. So now we are in the c wave, which should either be the width of the triangle up, which we have reached, or equal in size to the a wave, implying a top around 3450.

The Market is in a Long-Term Bull Market on the daily, with the 50 ema above the 200 ema and 800 ema . Price is above a long-term trend line and has been trading outside the Bollinger Bands , which typically causes a return to the mean. Fridays price action was a doji , following a long green candle. So, a down day Monday would complete an Evening Star pattern. We’re still in an uptrend as long as we close above the 13 ema at 3137.

The Market is in a Bull Market on the 4 hour, with price above the 50 ema , which is above the 200 ema , which is above the 800 ema . Price would have to close below 3148 to be considered in a correction. The last couple weeks price rallied in three pushes up and formed a Big Fat M-Top peak formation on Friday. That should lead to a stiff correction down to put in a c wave of the larger b. This market is desperate for a correction in order to digest gains, which will make the market healthier, and set it up for a rally up.

The Trade Deal with China, and the Impeachment proceedings are meaningless distractions, and a side show. The fundamentals on the companies in the S&P are horrid, with everything being over-priced. But as we’ve seen, the stock market mirrors the Federal Reserves balance sheet , and they’ve said they are going to do QE well into 2020. You want to be long this market only because of that.

This is my SPX 500 look ahead for my own trading purposes. FUTURES trading involves risk. Feel free to comment, but trade off of this post at your own peril.
Trade closed: stop reached: There was no Sell the Fact, there was just buy the QE4, and then buy some more! They drove this market so as I look at it there are a solid five waves up from 1850. Any and all upside price points that I had have been reached, and there is No Reason to be Long this market! X-mas week, I'm looking for distribution and a Large Peak Formation to be put in.

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