The stock market and US president cycle

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
6425 43
In paper named “Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles” Marshall Nickles, EDD thoroughly describes the evidence for such a connection, examining 15 stock market cycles that have occurred From April 1942 to October 2002 as well as presidential elections for that period. Here I intend to use that methodology to review the last two stock market cycles and find out how they fit to the broader picture.

As chart shows currently we are in the fourth year of the president cycle, the election year, and in the fourth year of the bull cycle (started with the 2009 low). The logic of cycle analysis suggests that applying the presidential year cycle strategy we should wait with investments until mid presidential term - Oct 2014 when market trough is expected.

More about the cycle investment strategy at
tks u so much. can u updated the latest graph?
You're welcome! The chart is autoupdateable by clicking the play button on the right side of it.
I don't think that we are in the eve of bear market, still. The correction, started before the elections, is to remind the politicians that the time for final budget agreement is ticking. If the gridlock is solved there is a possibility that we could see S&P up to 1550, maybe even higher...
memie CapitalHubs
very thanks you ^_^
its happen yesterday
I think October 2014 is probably a little late- It is also a 4- year cycle, which last bottomed in 2013, so it could easily first your pattern (Presidential) and the 4-year cycle from the end of 2009, or the beginning of 2010, and bottom in late 2013, early 2014. 1974-1978-1982-1986(the Boesky low), 1990, 1994, 1998 (Long Term Capital) 2002, 2006, 2010(or late 2009), 2013-2014?
phomans phomans
I mean to say, "which last bottomed, in the PRES cycle chart, in 2009"
wooooow.. Coool
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