The stock market and US president cycle

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
In paper named “Presidential Elections and Stock Market Cycles” Marshall Nickles, EDD thoroughly describes the evidence for such a connection, examining 15 stock market cycles that have occurred From April 1942 to October 2002 as well as presidential elections for that period. Here I intend to use that methodology to review the last two stock market cycles and find out how they fit to the broader picture.

As chart shows currently we are in the fourth year of the president cycle, the election year, and in the fourth year of the bull cycle (started with the 2009 low). The logic of cycle analysis suggests that applying the presidential year cycle strategy we should wait with investments until mid presidential term - Oct 2014 when market trough is expected.

More about the cycle investment strategy at


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