My SPX 5/11/19 declared a Yellow Alert for US stocks, since then the SPX has remained below its all-time high made on 5/1/19. An important bottom could be made in the low SPX 2700 area by late May. Bullseye date is 5/31/19.
First a tip of the hat to Tradingview member and frequent poster The_Unwind. My post today was inspired by The_Unwind's 4/12/19 SPX post using a Point and Figure chart. The_ Unwind is a very experience trader/analyst. I read all of The_Unwind's posts, you should too.
Point and Figure charts are similar to the Market Profile method which seeks to find value areas based on how frequently price will overlap a certain zone. The greater the overlap the greater the value. Market Profile method states the price either moves towards or away from value. In the current situation the SPX is moving towards maximum value in the low 2700. If the SPX can reach this zone there's a very good chance support will hold. A break below this powerful support would require powerful force. If the support can be broken there could be a very sharp drop down to SPX 2350 to 2400.
Thanks for posting Mark and a special TYVM for credit to our mutual pal The_Unwind. His calls have been spot on. Until this latest bear campaign I wondered whether it might get 3k after all and it still could, after the correction we might get another terrific rally... exciting times!
PS I hope ur rite, I entered a monster short position on Friday's rally... I expected retrace to upper channel TL near 2850, still might see it on Tuesday :-)
The_Unwind
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Thank you Mark, for your very kind words.
supere
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@The_Unwind, this comment could be affected by my bearish bias but my eyes are telling me that something terrible is about to unfold. I think Mark's lower target of 2400 had higher probability than 2700. This three week drop is like a loaded canon about to explode. Imho it should've dropped much deeper already but something has been keeping it coiled. In Elliott Wave terms the market should be due for the most powerful wave c or 3 drop since Feb 2018. My own analysis gives me a near term bottom target of 2450 on June 3. Watch first for an enormous gap down on Monday night that will break support for all sectors and 90% of stocks. Best wishes.
The set up is certainly there..
Your analysis is makes the possibility,
all the more visual and real.
Y
supere
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@The_Unwind, also to note is that we have already formed what looks to be a possible bearish engulfing candle by the end of May. This is not something to be trivialized especially since we already had two such events since 2018. Could be comparable to baseball. Three strikes and you're what???
Finally media has been tooth and nail focused on trade wars. But I think the real crouching Tiger is what you wrote about yesterday. Treasury yields. The hidden Dragon thatb will have the entire village in smoke before anyone saw it coming.
The bearish engulfing could be the trigger.
Continue to monitor...
supere
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@The_Unwind, one final comment for now. My system monitors the Hindenburg omen and proprietary Vix term roll oscillator crash warning. They both triggered within the last two weeks.
PS I hope ur rite, I entered a monster short position on Friday's rally... I expected retrace to upper channel TL near 2850, still might see it on Tuesday :-)