With every devastation this country faces there is always a high rate of plummet within the markets. There were bull rallies within those plummets, but it still happened. BUT WHAT YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER, THE MAIN VICTIM IN THE LAST 2 DISASTERS WAS USA.
No one is coming to terms that its not just the US economy that has been shut down, BUT THE WHOLE WORLD.
You will see a faster plummet this year, within a year I expect. Again, remember, the whole world economy has been shutdown practically.
(And for anyone who is expecting a "V" rally, no where in history have we recovered so quickly, and we wont this time. "History might not repeat, but patterns do." -Felix T. The cause may be different, but the results will ultimately be the similar)
But lets focus on the US. *More than 16 million people are unemployed, and even if we turned around today an opened the economy, those 16 million would not be hired right away. Remember, business lost revenue, and they will not higher employees while they have lost revenue. It will take months if not years to recover those employment numbers.
Retail companies were already struggling before Covid-19, and now with everyone on lock-down, the new digital era will simply erase many from our minds.
Bulls will argue that the Fed's stimulus will hold over the economy, but that thinking is simply naive, childish, and greedy. US CEOs see there business cutting employees, wages, and expecting major cash-flow issues. Confidence level amid the majority of CEOs has sharply declined to levels not seen since the Great Depression, and no one would argue that given the decline in the view about the current state of the economy.
This statement has never rang more true, "Be FEARFUL when others are GREEDY, and GREEDY when others are FEARFUL." Let's be honest, all we are seeing here in this current rally is GREED, not HOPE.
I see this current rally hitting only increasing to around 2900, before we decline sharp again.
And the OPEC deal that was completed today wont be enough to save this Bull rally.
Why are people ruling out the possibility this is massive short covering? We could be in a perpetual cycle of short selling and covering until real liquidation occurs
This has to be one of the most greediest rallies in history considering the magnitude of the situation... agree with you
matteophone
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@Ravi2409, I mean, it's not like 50% retracements never happen from a TA perspective...(sarcasm)
newcreation1960
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No running away from the painful truth? Thanks for sharing, my friend
russkishurik
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@newcreation1960, I appreciate the feedback. Looking to post more of my ideas up and collaborate
Donnyboy123
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I couldn't agree more - crazy not to be fading these ridiculous rally's. Huge downside to come in my opinion for too many reasons to list, but as an overview, we have been in an EVERYTHING bubble (bonds, stocks, housing - you name it) and bubbles only / always end the same way. 08 is not a comparison here, rates were cut and QE (such bullsh--) was implemented - NOW, we're already at ZERO rates and almost TWELVE YEARS of QE nonsense!! The cycle needs to be complete, no way around it. All the intervention did was prolong / delay what is now happening.
JacobCarmack
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The stimulus has never been this big. 08 was 0% interest rates with 1 trillion dollar stimulus.
This time, we are 2 trillion so (with more to come), 0% interest rates, and the fed is lending 4 TRILLION directly to businesses. Cash flow issues? Not as much as u think with all that cash. Also they debating another 2 trillion infrastructure bill.
We may crash very very hard down the line, fuck we may even go red from this bullrun, but this shit will be back to pre crisis levels end of 2021 max.
But alas, i respect your opinion, thanks for sharing.
russkishurik
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@JacobCarmack, I never said we wouldn't go back to pre crisis levels, I absolutely agree that we will, but it will take longer. Patterns show the faster we drop, the longer the recovery.