Elliott Wave: August 2019 - Where have we been?..Going?
Been an interesting 2019 thus far. My earlier weekly charts (discontinued earlier in 2019) led the way throughout 2018 to the decline in Oct-Dec 2018. However, the ENTIRE wave 4 decline was defined by what I then considered only the "A" wave of 4 ending in Dec 2018 (see earlier weekly charts). See yellow arrows in PPO Oscillator for wave 2 and 4 comparison to support that view. Fortunately I raised my wave B target early to take advantage of the 2019 rally.
I prefer to only publish my primary read and not hedge with alternate read details. However, those alternates are always part of the equation, and should be considered. As such, my alternate (more conservative, higher level) read) then was what I believe has happened in 2019, thus this update. Specifically, that wave 3 from 2009 ended in Oct 2018, not earlier at Feb 2018 (for comparison to this chart see weekly chart from 10/22/18). Thus wave 4 completed in Dec 2018, not Feb 2018, and we're in wave 5, but with a higher Fibonacci target for wave 5's completion. Any reversion to the prior read has been a much lower probability since earlier in 2019 (see other EWT estimates below).
I'm using a weekly chart to illustrate a high level view. Various Fibonacci levels are shown with potential wave 5 levels clustering near 3210-3300.
EWT estimates by other practitioners consider the Oct-Dec 2018 decline as only the A wave of 4, where a devastating C wave is ahead after the rally through Aug 2019. I admit that can't be dismissed. We're at a critical juncture to determine the outcome. Thus, further decline in the days/weeks ahead may complete the near term decline started in Aug 2019, or be part of a larger wave C as others suggest. Very near term, a realistic estimate is a re-test of 8/5/19 lows, or beyond to 2725-2750 where lower degree wave a = wave c is possible. At that juncture we're at a critical spot to determine what may happen next.
The remainder of 2019 should be quite interesting, and pivotal to determining the market's direction. Current expectation is a hold near 2725-2825 followed by wave 5's continued advance.
As always, many facts and perspectives should be used in assessing markets. As always caution is recommended.
I prefer to only publish my primary read and not hedge with alternate read details. However, those alternates are always part of the equation, and should be considered. As such, my alternate (more conservative, higher level) read) then was what I believe has happened in 2019, thus this update. Specifically, that wave 3 from 2009 ended in Oct 2018, not earlier at Feb 2018 (for comparison to this chart see weekly chart from 10/22/18). Thus wave 4 completed in Dec 2018, not Feb 2018, and we're in wave 5, but with a higher Fibonacci target for wave 5's completion. Any reversion to the prior read has been a much lower probability since earlier in 2019 (see other EWT estimates below).
I'm using a weekly chart to illustrate a high level view. Various Fibonacci levels are shown with potential wave 5 levels clustering near 3210-3300.
EWT estimates by other practitioners consider the Oct-Dec 2018 decline as only the A wave of 4, where a devastating C wave is ahead after the rally through Aug 2019. I admit that can't be dismissed. We're at a critical juncture to determine the outcome. Thus, further decline in the days/weeks ahead may complete the near term decline started in Aug 2019, or be part of a larger wave C as others suggest. Very near term, a realistic estimate is a re-test of 8/5/19 lows, or beyond to 2725-2750 where lower degree wave a = wave c is possible. At that juncture we're at a critical spot to determine what may happen next.
The remainder of 2019 should be quite interesting, and pivotal to determining the market's direction. Current expectation is a hold near 2725-2825 followed by wave 5's continued advance.
As always, many facts and perspectives should be used in assessing markets. As always caution is recommended.