Update on my larger S&P (SPX and SPX500USD) elliotwave count posted last night (see link below).
Wave c of 2 has completed and at end of today wave 3 of C is in its early stages that by the end of summer should take us down to the March lows.
Brace yourselves.
See my VIX , VXN to NASDAQ comparison and DXY charts posted last night...all confirming the bear market rally ended June 8th and since then we have traced out waves 1 and now today wave 2 of larger C down. Links are posted below.
Risk OFF is entering the markets.
Happy July 4th Independence Day!
Stay safe and get ready for exciting trading volatility entering the markets after the holidays on Monday.
Stock market crash will coming soon, 156% overbought buffet index!!!! High P/E
Sintar123
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more like wave B is complete and now wave C is going to start
cyrusgr8
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@coolioyo, based on my analysis of the longer term Daily charts of the rise in Dow, XLF and S&P the rise since the March lows was in 3 waves those 3 waves completed on June 8th. The drop to March lows was wave A. The rise since has been wave B. Which means larger wave C to close or matching March lows is now next. This makes the count wave 1 and now 2 of C completed and 3 of C down is next. I don't see new highs coming in the Dow or S&P any time soon. June 8th I believe marked the end of the Bear market rally. I have posted the longer-term count last night and link is above.
Sintar123
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@cyrusgr8, The move down was not an impulse in my opinion. Here is my count:
The entire move from March to June 8th was a B wave or X wave. I don't think we will go that low now, because market is very strong it seems.
cyrusgr8
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@coolioyo, ok now I see what you mean. I guess calling much lower we have that in common. It is an interesting count. I believe however if the drop from Feb to March lows is not impulsive then I don't know what is lol. Even if count A down to March lows as ABC it would still count to form a FLAT A(abc), B (wxy) and C (1,2,3,4,5). You have above a massive expanded flat for X with b of X from below c of w which is not typical. I believe it is a stretch to make the case X is such an expanded flat. The simplest count would either be a zig-zag like I have counted A(1,2,3,4,5), B (w,x,y) and C (1,2,3,4,5) or if want to say A is 3 waves then it can be counted as a FLAT (A (a,b,c), B (w,x,y) and C (1,2,3,4,5). Both zigzag and flat call for 5 waves in wave C down. The third alternative is a double zigzag (W to march lows, X to June highs and Y to new lows). Regardless of how dice it (zigzag, double zigzag or flat) next C (or Y) down should take us to close or exceed March lows. The only other alternative I see that is also credible is a massive triangle forming i.e A to march lows (abc), B to June 8th (w,x,y) and then C (a,b,c) then D (a,b,c) and final E (a,b,c) before all-time highs. So either this is a Flat/zigzag/double zigzag (all very similar targets) since the Feb highs (like I have counted) or it is a massive triangle and wave C of a triangle is now in progress.
Sintar123
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@cyrusgr8, I am no longer calling for that low prices. I am expecting anywhere from 2800 to 2500 as a target. The reason why I don't consider this a flat in my count is because the retracement of the B wave or X wave from the lows of Feb where my initial abc completes is only 61.8 percent and even less in the other indices like NYA and RUT. A flat requires a minimum retracement of 78.6%. A zigzag, and in this case double zigzag makes more sense
cyrusgr8
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@coolioyo, The next drop down wave 1 of 3 will find support between 2,800 and 2,950 and most will take it as a wave C (like you have alluded to) end and will believe new highs coming. I believe it will be a bull trap and will just be wave 1 of 3. Wave 2 of 3 will then rise to test broken support and trap new bulls before wave 3 of 3 of C resumes in full force. Towards end of wave 3 of 3 of C Fed will freak out and start their balance sheet expansions again. This will give rise to wave 4 of C and after a highly volatile wave 5 end the new Fed expansion will start to do its thing (as it did towards the end of wave A down to March lows) and larger wave C will come to an end sometime I believe in August. The rough outline of the path I posted on my daily count of the S&P futures last night...again link is above.