This chart puts things into perspective. The paradigm well predicted the retracement back in 2010 and 2011, but now, as in 2006, the spread w/ this bubble is hinting that the chances for a sudden return to reality are growing.
Comments
Ecantoni
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Many are calling for a 87-like scenario. Well looking at TNotes outta control it looks like we might be pretty close
QuantitativeExhaustion
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Tech Bubble 2.0
Ecantoni
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Yesterday the SPX made new intra RECORD highs and then closed down almost 1% same thing happened on 3/24/2000 and 10/11/2007 before the bearmarket
Nikkei crash is cleary emblematic
Barker
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You know I looked at this chart a few days ago and thought to myself, where would we be if we hadn't had the dot com bust and the financial crisis? I suspect at a much higher level than we are now. Now we find ourselves basically back where we left off before these past events. Who's to say we can't rally for another couple years? Most people are expecting a correction. The market almost never does what most people expect. just my 2 cents...
Ecantoni
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True...but things could be seen from the opposite side: even dr.doom Roubini expects a bullish scenario now. Others? Tepper, Birinyi, you name it... The house of cards has been built -once more- on the assumption that ratings can be considered an unbiased science. However, this time AAAs aint at the top of an Enron or a CDO, but on a 17 trillion sovereign debt financing a faltering macro environment. Time will tell...