jangseohee

SPX Jingle Bell

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
1901 9 9
The famous Christmas Rally - the underlying reason is to make the company acc             looks good for dumb money
Few things to take note:
1. Christmas rally can end prematurely before 31 Dec            
2. Christmas rally can start as early as Aug/Sept or as late as Nov
3. I only take the lowest to highest point between the highlighted duration

Some statistics from 2009:
2009: 2 Nov - 29 Dec             up 9.84%
2010: 31 Aug - 5 Nov up 17.8%
2011: 4 Oct             - 27 Oct             up 20.08%
2012: 15 Nov - 18 Dec             up 7.25%
2013: 10 Oct             - 31 Dec             up 12.27

To have the most similar inception of rally, i would compare to last year's rally where it started 6 days earlier.
In 2013             , it took 55 bars to achieve 12.27% increment in SPX             index.
At the moment, we only need 16 bars to achieve 12.26%.

There is only one thing in my mind.
Either:
a) This bull is really raging which could see the index going to 2182 considering a 20% increment
b) This so-called rally will just end up ranging and SPX             finishes year 2014
c) somehow if MEGAPHONE resistance in play, SPX             will plunge in yet another two weeks below 1820 (which will still make 2014 a yearly DOJI

This "crazy" mentality sound so humanly possible especially the big Central Bank are looking at how to manipulate the technical chart :-)

Merry Christmas in advance



I think this is biased. The last five years were one big rally. So if you pick any random couple weeks the chance is the market was rising. Try Easter. It would have been similar.
Reply
jangseohee tradecap
Yes, the biased/data point starting from 2009, i leave the Easter rally job for you :-)
+1 Reply
Hey
Well spoteted !
How about the 2008 ? 11-21-2008 (750) till 12-30-2009 (903,25). It gave 20% up, even if it was quite a down year as we remember. - just a small digression
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I understand your point, my intention of the comparison only take into full uptrend.
+1 Reply
Superb Analysis ! Keep it Up ! , Cheers !
Reply
jangseohee harsha.imperial
:-)
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Nice chart, thanks for the information. One question though: if the SPX entered ranging mode, how would that result in a doji on the yearly chart?
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jangseohee K155MY4R53
sorry, my mistake, YO (yearly open) @1800, price has to come down to 1900 at minimum to give a yearly DOJI :-)
Reply
jangseohee K155MY4R53
which is why i urgently need a quarterly and yearly option in tradingview.
Reply
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