hungry_hippo

SPX Pennant on hourly

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Went long on a couple of stocks overnight, dropped them at the upper trendline. Have a feeling we're gonna make a pennant here, I guess we'll find out in a day or two which way it breaks. Not sure why MFI isn't working anymore, but there's divergence on the hourly. That being said, it looks a lot like the late March reversal, so good chance it can go up. Last time the computerz gapped it over the trendline with futurez, In any case, it's not like fundamentals matter in this market.

With this whipsaw market all I'm doing is taking small shots on recognizable patterns.
Comment:
Tough to predict which way futurez will go overnight, tech stocks (QQQ) look like they want to gap back down (threw a doji star), but retail looks like it wants to continue the bounce. If I had to throw a SWAG (stupid wild ass guess), I'd say a gap down.

Staying out of it tonight.
Comment:
JC Penny and Kohl missed this morning, now Nordstrom. HD guidance wasn't great either. Retail dead cat bounce isn't going to last long. We'll see what happens with Target and Lowes tomorrow morning.

No compelling reason to go long on the market other than playing the bounces, earnings and guidance are starting to look weak across the board.
Comment:
As expected retail (XRT) is down today, I guess I should have bought some puts yesterday afternoon FDX and TSLA would have been nice. Tough market to trade, you almost have to alternate daily between buying calls and puts in the afternoon, lol.

In any case, the pennant was obviously a valid call, but I don't know which way it's going to break. Logic and fundamentals would dictate down, but the computerz have an easier time making money by pumping.
Comment:
Looks like a H&S pattern now, target at this point is 200DMA, probably by Monday close. Market is appropriately bearish now, though the companies that make money are getting hammered more than companies that lose money (go figure). Ridiculous valuation for companies like FC, WK, COUP, W.

Got a dentist appointment this afternoon, flipped my puts and out for the rest of the day.
Comment:
I still think the indices will hit the 200DMA line, probably this week.
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