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the_sunship
Jan 21, 2024 4:39 PM

Bias is up, and "risk on" trades likely catches up this week 

S&P 500SP

Description

Fomo Friday will probably continue into Monday. My guess is risk on assets - IWM and Crypto will likely get bid hard while SPX and QQQ consolidate and take a breather. Gold needs to hold 2k otherwise it will probably dump hard. Oil has made no real decision yet, but XLE looks like it will rally back to it's channel. TYX is rising, but so far the market doesn't care. A pullback on TYX would continue the rally on SPX. BTC may sell off a little more, but then I think it also rallies as part of the risk on trade.

Good luck!

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Good morning, 4 hr rsi on futures is already in the overbought area. With bearish divergence here and on the daily chart, it's possible we get a pullback to 4800 for a few days.

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SOXX slightly out of it's channel pre market

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IWM already above 194. 198 gap fill is the target.

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open should move up

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hourly RSI is quite low, I expect more upside.

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Good morning, SP:SPX overnight simply consolidated while CAPITALCOM:RTY gained almost 1 percent. AMEX:IWM will fill it's gap today for sure. On SP:SPX and AMEX:SPY we should see more upside, maybe we get to or close to 4900 today.

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IWM gap filled but can go higher.

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hourly RSI looks like it will continue to break up into tomorrow

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good morning, 4900 area reached pre market. We are now 4 days pushing against the daily BB, 4-5 is usually max. Daily RSI now showing nice bear divergences and above the 70 level. This is an area where pullbacks can occur, but a thrust up after the numbers tomorrow is still very possible.

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triangle from yesterday "may be" a wave 4, not sure. Anyway the hourly rsi is now fully reset with bear divergence. We may see some sort of correction after the open. AMEX:SPY SP:SPX

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open should pump a little, but i think it will come down after.

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si on 30 minute telegraphing a pump into EOD. AMEX:SPY SP:SPX

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AMEX:IWM and DJ:DJT are both weak against the general market.

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Vix is positive on the day

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support shelf reached, but this is strong selling.

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new video I will update there -

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TV hid my last idea because it went against their rules - fine.

Here's what it looks like pre GDP (830 am). Hourly rsi needs a reset, so GDP going up is likely. How much is hard to say, but I think something like this for today.

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Objective short.

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too high for a 2nd wave, so it's either a B with a C into tomorrow or we just go to new highs.

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hourly RSI is still too low, I think it will push up and get a new high today. Tomorrow may be different.

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bizarre day, but i still think this is likely going higher tomorrow or overnight to get more bear divergence on the RSI smaller time frames. AMEX:SPY SP:SPX

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Good morning, mid time frame RSI was too low yesterday and it will likely be reset today. I expect 4920-40+ today. If they get there quick, we could see a rug pull.

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already breaking out -

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XLE following the plan. I still don't trust Oil

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if they start breakdown down below 4870, there's something wrong with the analysis. Tech is very weak and may drag down the rest of the market.

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they lost the breakout, but as of now there's no real breakdown unless they get under the lower yellow line. RSI still low to me, so I'm considering this still in consolidation mode unless they get SP:SPX under 4860.

Comments
wolffarchitecture
I have found Wednesdays highly manipulated and your either ready (from Tuesday, or previous positions ) or not, but trading during the day very difficult, and not a day to change you mind on things.
the_sunship
@wolffarchitecture, i could see them sell it down and then trap shorts into tomorrow's numbers
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