S&P 500: Maximum fear priced in for this week. Next week higher
If the market were truly bearish, then "Gold" and "Vix" hadn't taking any pause in rallying strongly higher this week. Instead both dipped lower in the last days and the US stock market remained sideways holding above its lows. Until real strong fear starts creeping back into the market there is no reason to panic. Especially if bears capitulate next week, because they once again saw the end of the word coming too early.
Long entry: 2335-2340
Stop loss: 2330
Target: 2365-2370
Risk: 5-10
Reward: 25-35
I lowered my long targets compared to previous bullish ideas, because this projected move higher might also result in a dead cat bounce if negative black swan news comes around. But if the market sentiment slowly improves here is my old bullish idea:
Long entry: 2335-2340
Stop loss: 2330
Target: 2365-2370
Risk: 5-10
Reward: 25-35
I lowered my long targets compared to previous bullish ideas, because this projected move higher might also result in a dead cat bounce if negative black swan news comes around. But if the market sentiment slowly improves here is my old bullish idea:
"Still a bull market"
video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000...
Very bad timing. I had hoped any black swan news would happen in a few days - ideally at the earliest next week - when the bottoming process had more time to stabilize. Because in my eyes the market is already technically confirmed with its toes in a bear market. Recent price action this week made it seem this bear market risk could be gone before the end of April. Now I'm not so sure anymore, because every minor event can currently decide the direction, because the market is neutral and can go both ways.
Good news for this Wednesday is that the price already fell today into my long entry range between 2340-2335 so there is more time left to bounce back higher until the trading week closes. Thursday' to Friday is going to be the real test if bulls can reverse the bear market.