More and more I'm thinking we may have sideways motion in the form a of a triangle on SPX. Weekly BBs are starting to show sideways action and lower weekly BB and MAs (200 weekly, 50 monthly) are all pointing to support around 3650-3600. This analysis is wrong if they can get over the August 22 high of 4325, which to me is doubtful.
It's possible they ramp this one more time into the 4200s with CPI but it would only concern me if they could start getting over the 4325 mark. Anything over 4200 would be a gift to bears in my opinion. Many large cap stocks and other indexes are at a backtest of important resistance, a little higher would not be an issue.
I'm thinking this could be the high for quite a while. If I'm right, a D leg down to 3600 would be followed by an E, but the E should not get over the current C leg high.
Good luck!
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A pullback today would set up bullish divergence on the mid time frame rsi. I can see another pump to test the highs if we pullback today.
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it's possible we're in a leading diagonal, in which case a small lower low and then pump to test highs (but not exceed them) could be the first move. AKA More traps
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spy backtest of 2hr trendline, objective short here.
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Good morning, I expect something like this after 830 CPI. If I'm wrong it will go to the upper trendline and into 4200's.
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looks correct so far
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ok if this is the double top test I was talking about in the video, then we shouldn't get over this morning's high on futures. My guess is we open much lower and then bounce, which would be a short opportunity. If they get over the high of this morning, we are likely going into the 4200's. I'm not sure which just yet. Open will tell us more. If we are in a 3rd wave (the top being made last week), the third wave should drag us down to around 4k.
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as of now, this is the count I'm working with.
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SPY retested it's trendline, above 415 would look more promising for bulls, as of now I still think we go lower. Trappy, whippy day....
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saw a video where someone said this was a bull flag. well if that's the case the breakout failed. They chopping everyone to bits today, staying short.
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bulls are holding on to the "bull flag breakout" - which doesn't look great for bears. Transports up quite a bit, usually a sign of bullish follow through tomorrow. My guess is they are going to get into the channel and go to the higher part of it. This is not acting correctly for a down move today. More grind up probable.
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If we DO come down overnight, look for mid time frame RSI to be quite low and then another retest of the channel is probable. 4200 double top would then be achievable
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in either case, I think this rally stretches on and frustrates both sides with more chop.
Good man. Hope you were able to close your shorts for some profit. Appreciate the US oil analysis from a few weeks ago, it helped me make some big cheese, and I owe you a steak. I think they are going to (and may have, already) defended that 4060 tetrahedral and will try to push for 4495 (which will never be reached) and likely top out in the low 4300s. This is the 5th wave of C of B, and could technically extend above 4512 to the .786, but more likely right around 4303 for the .618. As a practical matter, such a corrective wave would also satisfy the gapsters by closing all gaps before we descend below these levels for the next many years. This shall be dubbed the Scrap Rally.
the_sunship
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@CuzDelux, hi, i'm holding short. My thinking is we are close to a turn and we won't get over 4325, so I'm just going to wait it out. The triangle makes the most sense to me here.
CuzDelux
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@the_sunship, Ah, ok. Either way, I agree with the analysis and can't see much higher than that, either, maybe 4343.75, but would be tremendous pressure. Heard someone on Bloomberg talking about could go to 5k, which tells me they will sell long enough before that to anyone thinking it is possible. Absolute high would be 4495, and it would not hold this first attempt. I like the triangle analysis and agree that whatever transpires next week should mark the highs for quite a while.