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markrivest
Aug 12, 2018 2:32 PM

Another Important SPX Bottom on 8/10/18 or 8/13/18 Long

S&P 500SP

Description

In prior SPX posts I've noted there are several possible bullish wave counts, this post illustrates yet another alternate count.
I believe the SPX has a very good chance to make a new all-time high before the end of August 2018.
The recent SPX high at 2863 did have a bearish divergence on the daily RSI, it was not confirmed by the 60 minute RSI which reached its highest level since the early April bottom.
This implies the SPX has a good chance of exceeding the top at 2863.

The small SPX drop on 8/10/18 was curious because there was a spike in the Put/Call Ratio and it reached a level that coresponds with recent SPX bottoms.
On 8/10/18 the SPX found support at the rising trend line. However there are two important Fib levels at SPX 2790 and 2791. Two Fib cooordinates this close together usually are a powerful magnet and in this case could be powerful support. If the SPX goes down on 8/13/18 and is near 2790-2791 this could be a great area to go long.

I've posted several times that market turns sometimes come near Full/New moons. Most of the time New moons signal tops in the stock market, but on occasion they can also signal bottoms. The New moon on 8/11/18 - Saturday could be another piece of evidence that the SPX bottomed on 8/10/18 or will bottom on 8/13/18.


Mark

Comments
DaddySawbucks
I enjoyed your lunar cycle model but I'm afraid this time it won't hold. Was an amusing coincidence during the channel course but the last bull run extended and now is out of sync.

I reckon we might get near a bottom by the Full Moon on 8/25. Let's see! Thanks for the interesting insight.
judejames
hmmm
cocawater
Hi Mark,

Why the New moon on 8/11/18 decline cannot be considered as the start of a new falling? Is it because" Two Fib cooordinates " have the support here ? Thanks.
markrivest
@cocawater,
Hi
The SPX peak was 3 trading days before the new moon. I only alow for a leeway of plus or minus two trading days from a new/full moon for a market turn.


Mark
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