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DaddySawbucks
Mar 23, 2023 11:48 AM

Measured Move? Or More? Short

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

Short the rallies! Every rally is nothing but liquidity grab. You gotta be nuts to go long here, because:

FOMC > more rate hikes 'may be needed' = 'are coming'

Banking crisis. Worse than they let on.

Yield curve inverted. Always preceeds major selloff.

Recession is coming. For all the above. We in 70's economy, stupid!

The Big Dump w/capitulation always comes near the Fed pivot. Next meeting may be the pivot.

Every Bear has finished with VIX >40. This will be no different. Buy when VIX pops and stonk drops.

Could get a measured move, could get a massive dump, I can't see the future, always guessing; GLTA!

Comment

Gosh a green engulfing candle... most unexpected, surely another trap.
Didn't take shorts was waiting for an entry maybe better just watch it eh?

Trade active

Opening Bear Shares in SPXS, SDOW, UVXY. Buy April calls on SQQQ, SPXS, open QQQ 31 March 212p

Comment

Read John Murphy TEch Analyssi Fin Mkts see Fig 4-10a; textbook retracement after TL breakdown

Comment

Trade active

Yeah banked puts in open and did the cawl crawl. An all-day grind through miserable chop to close the gap.

Most likely to gap down again and run lower next time.
No position; damned daily PA has been utterly unpredictable.
Every play a crapshoot but the PA is bearish and forms breakdown pattern.

Trade active

Shorted EOD. Let's see.

Comment

Banked shorts. Indecision day. NQ weak. Flight to quality in DJI followed by more weakness. Distribution phase.

Trade closed: stop reached

Well my goodness. Fortunately did not get caught short. All the moves are gaps!
Comments
bonnenul
So,did you still see the trouble top 4300? I still see a up before the big drop, and gold need a break higher, dxy need a lower low. Maybe short is not very well now.
DaddySawbucks
@bonnenul, why would it go higher? it's a downtrend, this was nothing but countertrend move for liquidity
bonnenul
@DaddySawbucks, yes, but i see a up before the final big drop. the final wave C up
FiboTrader1
@bonnenul we are in wave iii of iii down. 4300 is also no feasible, due to the 20 sma on the monthly having curled over below 4300. much more selling coming and anything above 4100 is not in the cards.
Petrichor_
@FiboTrader1 wave iii of iii? That sounds like we’re near the bottom once iii of iii finishes? Or will it/can it be a significant drop? Would love to know your downside targets. I’m uncertain as to whether it will stop at 3800 and turn around or go to 3400 and possibly lower.
FiboTrader1
@Petrichor_, my wave iii of iii target is 341. Looking at long term target of at least 294 for end of wave v
D5139516
About tad less than half of my monthly signals are now bullish with just over half remaining bearish. That is this markets way of letting us know not to get too dogmatic and to be patient. When the market is going nowhere fast (11 months of going nowhere) that is a signal to me to wait and be patient :)
DaddySawbucks
@D5139516, aye :-)
Tradersweekly
Time will tell. Thank you for sharing.
Infidel777
Thanks for the download!! 🤘😎🤘
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