if the price close over the channel that means wave 5 is actually done / to make sure we need to reclaim the resistance around 3700 / going above wave 4 will make me 99% sure that we will have a good bounce.
another scenario is wave 5 is not done yet
Zoom out
scenario 1
scenario 2
scenario 3
I'm watching the confirmation for the second scenario / the first & second scenarios are very similar and take us in the same direction at the end
the 3rd scenario is the bullish one I will wait for confirmation then I will make an update
overall I'm bearish but yeah there's a chance for a bounce in the mid-term
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30m frame S&P futures
for now, it looks like a corrective wave, not an impulse
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The more powerful the relief rally gets, the more brutally it will get retraced.
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look like scenario 1 is active but there is still a chance for scenario 2 to play
the last move may be a flat wave that continues rising or the beginning of wave 3 from 5 by the market closing today we will know more
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This is how the flat wave could look like I will go on with this scenario, it's the same idea as scenario 2 above
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usually wave B takes the same time or less than A to completed
it took 5-6 days for A
the wave C which contains 5 waves will take longer
don't expect a big relief rally
~3900 will be a good resistance
if you want to know why I chose scenario 2 read the text at the beginning of this idea
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it was a pretty crazy day
I will show you my idea for the previous & next micro-movements
I detailed the wave B which has 3 movements inside (a,b,c) so I think the wave b is a flat wave inside bi / expanded flat to be clear
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To make it more understandable
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the last update failed it was going good until it went above the red line
anyway that was a micro-movement the main idea is scenario 2 in the beginning
I will put the chart here
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this is how the micro scenario look this A,B,C is a part of wave 2 look at the last update to understand
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alphabet Earning & Revenue is after 35m + Microsoft
I don't think google E & R will be bullish
There is another scenario besides the one above but I didn't share it cuz the movement is more bullish
the other scenario is we are forming 5 waves from A
for now, the micro scenario is the chart in the previous update
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quick update
the movement is still in the scenario range still active
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UPDATE
Trade closed: stop reached
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I'm still bearish this is a micro move, properly the last corrective didn't finish (wave 2) I will make an update soon as possible