So for the last three day, the market seemed to act abnormally against the bad news, which are flooding the market right now. We have been trying find the reasons for this. Here what we know so far: + Firstly (technical), the market is heavily involved by the Government (duh). Please notice the blue lines. These are resistances lines created by AI, indicates when the Gov jumped in the market. They perfectly pumped money into the market at a certain SPX values. The gap between each line is ridiculously equal! However. here the catch! Every time they pumps, the market will go down sharply, and the RSI curve downward. This time is no exception. It seemed like they tried to hide the pattern by creating the wider gap between last week and this week. The point is not to create panic and stabilize the market, of course they don't want to see the market crash so fast. If the theory is correct, this time the sell-off will be greater than before (11%). + Secondly (Economics), the Gov has been following Keynesian economics, which uses stimulus to drive the market to the way they want. (If you don't know the Keynesian, please watch "youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk" => not boring as you thought it would be). This is the reason why many of us fail to predict and short the market in the last three day. If we're in a normal market, our accuracy would be 95%. For that reason, we will change the algorithm to predict stocks. The scenario 2 which we shared yesterday was based on the new idea. In a nutshell, the AI won't care about the bad news, they will focus more on the government's actions, including FED (duh). ------------- Bottom line: In reality, people are suffering. The bills won't help much. Taxpayer will pay more money, price will skyrocket in the next few months as inflation starts to kick-in. People will pay more taxes in the next few years (pay the debt that the Gov is creating). => good time to invest in gold.
Scenario 1: Stock will crash in about one or two days. Scenario 2: Stock will likely to pumps up as the Bills pass. Then slowly decline.
This is not Keynesian economics; keynesian policy would have meant that austerity measures were put into place over the last 5-years. Instead, the gov simultaneously increased spending and reduced taxation. The recently implemented policies are more indicative of Modern Monetary Theory. I agree that the inflation from this will be awful for working class people. The FEDs moves will lead to 'Stagflation'
LagunitaLLC
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@nolanrj44, but I don't think what they did suit this market, while unemployment skyrocketed and debt bubble is just getting bigger. This happens due to the inexperienced and mediocre leadership. I don't think Powell can handle pandemic. It's a big issue, as long as COVID 19 is still out there, there is no hope for the comeback. The key to determine the economy right now is the inflation rate, soon they will announce it, won't be pretty though.
nolanrj44
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@LagunitaLLC Do you know of any reliable sources for inflation forecasts? While I expect inflation to rise, I don't see many people talking about it.
LagunitaLLC
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@nolanrj44 reddit. Or you can download data from government website and make educated guesses. I would say it’s around 2.1% for March