ProfitHarvest
Short

[SPX] Let the Drop Begin, 2100 x August... POC Weighing Heavy

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
I can't lay off this damn SPX man.

Here's my drop map for June/July.

I'll think we'll touch 2100 before July end if not blow through it a bit, def by August end.

There's not enough momentum to keep this afloat much longer.

Comments

Man I strongly disagree. The fact that it was saved from dropping below 3k yesterday shows that there was a little rescue operation from the bulls. I do not think we have received a bearish signal yet. I will wait till 3110 before looking for a drop.

Thats just how I feel from last weeks trading.
+2 Reply
@itsQure, It won't hold up under the weight of next week's horrifying economic data but we may get one final last gasp FOMO wave early week to 3100 or maybe even 3200 but that seems like an unlikely outcome in my model.

Alas, precision is not my strong suit, I just use indicators and events to ride the swings. Can't find a solid bull case based on technicals or fundamentals though.

Too much uncertainty, too much volatility, too many factors coinciding for 1st June.

The party is almost over.
+5 Reply
arthurhh ProfitHarvest
@ProfitHarvest, You may be correct in the 3100 to 3200 wave but not when you think. Fells more like mid July for your outcome.

Frankly, I'm taking a break come next Monday, for a few weeks anyway.
+1 Reply
@arthurhh, Why would you take a break from trading on the eve of one of the biggest short opps in a decade?

Yea, other people on here are calling June 24th too.

Agree, my precision game is kinda weak so left my prediction broad here but def expect the low to hit before end of July.
Reply
I dunno. Friday’s after hours swing raised some eyebrows. I’m not sure spx was saved, as es1 futures closed right around 3060, in total free fall, in a trench war to hold it.

I think a drop below that and one could argue the bears are in control so I’m not sure how anyone could have a fully bullish attitude. Also volatility (tvix especially) held through after hours, atypical of the usual pump and dump volatility we see. Like folks were holding, which is rare with that thing.

For sure, they could dump first thing Monday and we could gap up and see 3200 this week. and these markets don’t feel real anymore (were they ever?). But I’m curious as to why people think it’s moving any one way. There was a lot of insanely large unusual option activity on SPY weekly puts for 6/22. Smart money being dumb?! I dunno.

Anyway, sitting out might be nice, for sure. Easier on the soul but then who doesn’t like a real good adrenaline rush?!
Reply
horacejunior horacejunior
@horacejunior, whoops this is may 30th haha. Turns out the bulls were right!!
+1 Reply
ProfitHarvest horacejunior
@horacejunior, Bulls def nailed it but we were just early to the party ;).
Reply
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