Elliott Wave: Week of 2/25/19 - A Wedge, a Zoom, and an Update
'Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.' - George Santayana. True? Perhaps. This week's chart takes a look at recent history, zooms in using a 1 hour chart, and updates the a,b,c move since December 2018.
First, the update. Shocker, but I'm not perfect. I'll readily admit that my use of Elliott Wave is far better at higher degree waves than much shorter time periods, or lower degree waves. However, it is vital to use multiple time periods with Elliott Wave to see the big picture, but also check for lower degree wave guidance.
I've updated the a,b,c correction by reviewing the lower degree details in a 1 hour time period. My charts generally use daily prices. Thanks to a comment last week by www.tradingview.com/u/lapin_eliott/
I have reviewed and updated the corrective a,b,c move since December's low. The shape is more evident using a 1 hour chart with the b wave actually completed, not ahead as I illustrated, and the c wave in progress as a diagonal triangle (wedge, broken white lines). The entire move comprises the a,b,c pattern.
Self similarity is another aspect of Elliott Wave placing it in the camp of history repeating. A look back at the rebound from February's decline in early 2018 shows a similar a,b,c pattern with a comparable diagonal triangle ending at September's peak, also shown as broken white lines. The vertical broken line is the September 2018 peak.
The bottom part of the chart shows divergence for PPO (which I prefer to MACD) and RSI with lower peaks (red) as the market has recently drifted higher.
Higher level details for target zones and harmonic pattern (Bat) can be found in my earlier charts using a 1 day time period. I have not produced a weekly chart, but the divergence for PPO and RSI is more dramatic on such a chart.
Near term we're positioned for a pullback. The progress and shape will dictate future expectations based on probability. A look at recent history can help guide those expectations for now.
First, the update. Shocker, but I'm not perfect. I'll readily admit that my use of Elliott Wave is far better at higher degree waves than much shorter time periods, or lower degree waves. However, it is vital to use multiple time periods with Elliott Wave to see the big picture, but also check for lower degree wave guidance.
I've updated the a,b,c correction by reviewing the lower degree details in a 1 hour time period. My charts generally use daily prices. Thanks to a comment last week by www.tradingview.com/u/lapin_eliott/
I have reviewed and updated the corrective a,b,c move since December's low. The shape is more evident using a 1 hour chart with the b wave actually completed, not ahead as I illustrated, and the c wave in progress as a diagonal triangle (wedge, broken white lines). The entire move comprises the a,b,c pattern.
Self similarity is another aspect of Elliott Wave placing it in the camp of history repeating. A look back at the rebound from February's decline in early 2018 shows a similar a,b,c pattern with a comparable diagonal triangle ending at September's peak, also shown as broken white lines. The vertical broken line is the September 2018 peak.
The bottom part of the chart shows divergence for PPO (which I prefer to MACD) and RSI with lower peaks (red) as the market has recently drifted higher.
Higher level details for target zones and harmonic pattern (Bat) can be found in my earlier charts using a 1 day time period. I have not produced a weekly chart, but the divergence for PPO and RSI is more dramatic on such a chart.
Near term we're positioned for a pullback. The progress and shape will dictate future expectations based on probability. A look at recent history can help guide those expectations for now.