aamonkey
Short

How To Trade S&P 500

SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
I ask myself how can the price can go down when everybody thinks it will go down.

Because basically this would mean everybody would be right and this is not possible.

Nevertheless, I also believe that there is not much room left for the S&P 500 based on TA.


How much Time is left?

If we grow at our current rate I expect the market to sustain for less then a year (about 336 days).

However, the timing is not easy to predict, what is way more effective is to get the levels at which we will see the return.

I expect a reversal at the 3,300 lvl .

Keep in mind this is NOT an exact target!

This is more an area in which I see the price to go down.

This means it could hit the 3,500 to 3,200 lvl .

But somewhere in this range, I see the market to return.


How long will the crash take?

Same as before the timing is hard to predict, my guess would be about 8 years on the long side.

However, I expect to see a bull trap, which could get us to back to about 50% of the first big retracement (in the current state I expect this pump to go back up to the 2,900 lvl )

This would also form an H&S pattern which would confirm further downside movement (as well as a bear flag ).


How To Trade:

Ok, now the most important question how do you play this cycle?

I already see the media creating massive FUD telling you to sell at the bottom and buy the tops.

Therefore, it is very important to know this market cycle you see in this post.

If you are invested right now I would advise you to take profits in this next 330-day period (Don't be greedy!).

If you are not invested right now, don't invest.

What you should do:

I see a 50%-75% pullback, with 60% as the most likely outcome.

If you looked at my chart you probably noticed, that we are in a 3 wave and there is 5 wave to come.

This is why I start looking for entries when we are in this white box (orange boxes exact areas)

Remember not to go all in at once!

It is impossible to catch the exact bottom, that's why I scale in and buy a bit at different levels (displayed with the orange boxes).















Comment: This post was a lot of work so I would appreciate it if you show it some love.
yep, any no market crash in a months. it bounce up again and crash again. great work
+1 Reply
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