First, the FED for whatever reason will decide to stop tightening sooner than expected or will decide to make much smaller rate hikes... For whatever reason; better for us.
The SPX will move up as you see the green arrow and break the orange trendline...
Not necessarily right away or maybe right away... Bottom line is we go big green by the end of the month.
Everything will start to accelerate after half January and pick up speed after the third week of the month.
Possible hype on the CPI number to your target. Then at end of the month JP says .25% interest hike with hawkish stance, market rolls over back to 3800.
AlanSantana
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@traderblee, Which leads to a higher low and then the grow resumes until late March...
CapeAfrican
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Fed speak tomorrow - CPI Thursday - Bank Earnings start in earnest Friday - some of that may be Bearish?
AlanSantana
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@CapeAfrican, Yes but still we see bullish Q1 in general, regardless of short-term swings... Actually, for the crypto markets, anything can happen with the traditional markets.
AlanSantana
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@CapeAfrican, CPI numbers are fake, so we got that covered.
The Fed must be under a lot of pressure so we got that cover.
I don't know about bank numbers... You have any idea how that will turn out?
Techbest
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@AlanSantana, Correct in that the Fed is under a lot of pressure from old school economist about INFLATION!!!! We must stamp out inflation or live with it for 10+ years like the late 70's early 80's. The Fed knows that they must stay the course and take money out of the system. Fed pivot means inflation for all and at least 20% loss in value on all assets. IMO this is a great setup to crush all Perma Bulls and most retail investors, much like 2000 and 08'.
That to me looks like big ass pennant /symmetrical.. We got the ABCD and we are making the E now.. Considering that on the bigger TF is on downtrend I would be cautiously optimistic.. Not much of a news > move believer
AlanSantana
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@Kaloian, On a broader perspective we are leaning bullish.
DaddySawbucks
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Absurd. why would fed suddenly pivot policy. target is 2% inflation. even if cpi improves again it wont be anywhere close. crash more likley imo. This kind of foolish optimism is what suckers readers into buying the day before it breaks.