What does your confirmation look like? What if it is down, what does that look like?
AlanSantana
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@tradingnige, What do you mean? Can you be more specific, I don't understand the confirmation question.
tradingnige
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@AlanSantana, What price move/level break will confirm to you that your hypothesis that SPX500 is likely to continue upward is correct? Does that make more sense?
AlanSantana
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@tradingnige, Prices already bounced off the 0.5 Fib. retracement, which indicates strength.
Yesterday we had a red candle yet prices remain above EMA50, this signals mid-term bullish potential.
Currently trading above EMA100 is super bullish but the daily candle needs to close for confirmation.
So the bullish bias is already in/confirmed, it would need to close lower to invalidate it.
Resistance is found next 3971-3990, 0.618 Fib. and MA200 and 4027/30, 0.786 Fib and EMA300 but these are easy targets.
Within a higher low, we aim for a higher high and thus the 4,300+ target based on fib. extension.
AlanSantana
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@tradingnige, We would need a daily close below 3780 to resume lower and there is still support at 3724.
The fact that the FED denied to comment and this turned out positive is a strong confirmation for me because I predicted something like this would happen.
The CPI will come out positive next and this should seal the deal.
But the time the FEDs pressure the market next we will be trading within higher levels and thus any correction can end up in a healthy higher low to allow for further growth until they strong crash come likely in late March when they meet again.
With all this said they are likely to pivot some time this year and make some surprise move.
They have too much political pressure as they say.
AlanSantana
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@tradingnige, There is a premium on the future contracts, ES1!, already moving ahead and this is also a bullish signal.
Some of the big stocks are also showing relief rally signals and this of course would push the SPX higher.