Expected a high being hit today, we got it. Expected a close below 4308.5SPX, we got it. Expected a red close, got it only on NASDAQ and Small Caps.
As long as we stay below 4340SPX we should see lower is my next expectation.
VIX (see my update earlier) has a clear ISH pattern.
Main support is 4177SPX
Tomorrow must watch numbers are - 4285 and especially 75, failure of holding the last number can be a good sign of the local top, need much lower to mark the maj top! - Resistance is the same 4308.50 on the closing level. - Upper target zone is around 4330-34SPX in case it wants to tag it, Im not playing it and will be looking for a short setup instead.
I expect this to dive down to 4150+- SPX zone by the 24th-26th and one more push to lower low /double top, or if broken above - 4425+ sometime early Sep. Not favouring the second scenario, but can be a case for the larger B wave top in Jan.
Im not in the camp of new ATH's and the lows being in, I dont change my count to fit the price or put many counts to be right regardless. If Im wrong at some point (everyone makes mistakes), I will admit and only then change my view. We are not even close to have that view changed at this point.
Also want to bring the attention to Sep and hope many will make a note of this warning - there is a chance we could crash that month and my charts do reflect that. Will it be serious or not as much, I have no idea, but I see some serious signs of something happening that month.
my god how do you decipher the important information through all that noise??
KT1925
⋅
Sold short, long now. Let's see how this goes after Fed minutes
RealTima
⋅
@KT1925, FED would keep its 75 points hike plan imo, not sure if it will make any difference
KT1925
⋅
@RealTima, iwm can get a backtest to at least 201/203 or 434 SPY then drops hard into the 22nd. This is what I am trading. Let's see how it will go, good luck to all.
RealTima
⋅
@KT1925, It might, needs to get above 4290, below is pressing lower
KT1925
⋅
@RealTima, Made some quick profit, I closed my long and in short right after the IWM bounced to 199.