As the figure shows there is a clear negative correlation between U.S. unemployment and the S&P 500. Currently, we are seeing extreme highs in unemployment and the recovery will certainly take some time.
To see more reasoning for a short position, please look at my previous post on the S&P 500 (Witnessing a bubble created by people's unrealistic expectations)
Most powerful case I’ve seen for 1500. Beautiful chart.
Fantastic work, thanks.
Nighttrader6008
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thanks. I was thinking about this in the back of my head for a while. Un-employment has to be the strongest correlation for S&P that you can find
Finswole
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Excellent analysis. Thank you.
yupyupyup
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I like it - thanks!
Nighttrader6008
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At the same time though. If you look back in 2008 the unemployment did not peak at the same time the market bottomed. The market was climbing out of the bottom while the unemployment was still rising.
Fantastic work, thanks.