Have updated the chart according to the latest development. I see wave 1 ending around 1654. (1657 is to stretch it to the limit) And we'll might see 1776 much before the end of the year, but I'll not change the slope of the channel line before we'll see where wave 2 down ends.
My primary bullish count: Wave minuet (1) of minor 3 of major [5] is near completion at 1654. The move up to 1645 looks like it's wave iii-(1) and now wave iv-(1) should not make wave 4 into wave 1 violation and therefore stay above the wave i-(1) high of 1627,01. Once wave iv-(1) completes, I have wave v-(1) ending around the 1654 resistance level. Once minute wave (1) completes, wave (2) will retrace a fib 50 of minuet to the 1630 level. Wave (3) of minor 3 should then make a new All Time High. Ultimately major [5] of P3 should reach 1776.
My (bearish) count: I'll wait on the bearish count in detail - due to the fact that this one is also bullish, but we could see a backtest of broken falling trendline from ATH to a retest of the 1600 level.
We should assume the number 1776 is the top of bull run, because that's the date of Decleration of Independence?.... causation? or conspiracy? Rational?
We should assume this year/early next year is the end all for economic growth. Why? ..because the Federal Reserve was built to only run for 100 years? ... causation? or conspiracy? Rational?
We should assume when Bernanke leaves in February 2014, the Federal Reserve will be destroyed? causation? or conspiracy? Rational?
There is no functionalism or correlation between the three previous statements.
Next problem... Your Elliott wave count for a 4th wave cycle. With Cycle 2's and 4s we should see a rather large or long duration of correction. This bull run started in March of 2009. Impulse cycles 1 - 3 have lasted 23 and 19 months. Cycle Correction 2 lasted 3 months and assuming your chart is correct cycle 4 lasted one month. There should be some sort symmetry here and most likely a Cycle 4 lasting at least three months if not more.
Next problem sub-counts. I can't find an example of a cycle 4 pattern only having 1-5 count. Even a flat has 1-5, a-b-c, 1-5 count.
The only bullish notation I can come up with here is we have yet to see our cycle 4 and we finishing up a 4 wave major which would put us in a 5 wave major. However, if true, our descending broadening wedge pattern that shaped our 4th wave major was deep and would most likely give us a fast and quick 5th wave failure. A 5th wave failure usually barely breach the previous top of wave 3 and or come up short. After a 5th wave failure you have a cycle correction 1-5, A-B-C, 1-5.
QuantitativeExhaustion
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QuantitativeExhaustion
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Being practical here. Most likely we are in B of cycle 4. However, there is a chance we could be seeing a fast rising 1-5 impulse 5th wave that could top out near 174.
CoinedByCrypto
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Well JR!
You know EW is not science and even EW's do notation differently. Only in hindsight can we decide what was right or wrong. however I try not to lock myself in to a specific mode. I will always be the contrarian because... that has given me the best results. At the moment i'm in this corner: "However, there is a chance we could be seeing a fast rising 1-5 impulse 5th wave that could top out near 174." I agree with your above chart that the end of 3 will come to be where the "or 3" is.
"The only bullish notation I can come up with here is we have yet to see our cycle 4 and we finishing up a 4 wave major which would put us in a 5 wave major." Yes I agree!
Whether or not it will be a usual: "A 5th wave failure usually barely breach the previous top of wave 3 and or come up short" ... remains to be seen.
I'll stick to my guns....still expect my EW-count to be correct... time will show.
I do not assume the 1776 is top of the bull run (could in fact be 1944 (the start of Bretton Woods)), but I see that there could be some turbulence around that level due to the statements I made about the end of FED's 100 year regime and Ben Bankster. The 1776 is according to the EW-count I made nothing else. It has nothing to do with conspiracy only a "funny" coincidence in time. In fact as I stated above in my update " we'll might see 1776 much before the end of the year"
You know....the world wants to be deceived and todays ummmm "economics" or bankster ruled finans - is more a matter of creating a perception than stick to reality. I will always look at the market as it's the market ruling the news. The news is used to find an excuse for a retracement or correction or creating a gap up. News is only opium for the masses made to play with your felling.
CoinedByCrypto
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My primary bullish count:
Wave minuet (1) of minor 3 of major [5] is near completion at 1654. The move up to 1645 looks like it's wave iii-(1) and now wave iv-(1) should make no wave 4 into wave 1 violation and therefore stay above the wave i-(1) high of 1627,01. Once wave iv-(1) completes, I have wave v-(1) ending around the 1654 resistance area. Once minute wave (1) completes, wave (2) will retrace of fib 50 of minuet to the 1630 level. Wave (3) of minor 3 should then make a new all time high. Ultimately major [5] of P3 should reach 1776.
My (bearish) count:
I'll wait on the bearish count in detail - due to the fact that this one is also bullish, but we could see a backtest of broken falling trendline from ath to a retest of the 1600 level.
This time around it wasn't ...time will show....
It's..... time has showed
Safe trading gents!
BM
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