Technician
Short

8 Reasons to Short the Stock Market (Part One) #stocks

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
3803 23 79
(1) Market Valuation: 4 main measures of market valuation is signalling markets are overvalued
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500             . A well-known measure of market valuation. It is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio. The Ratio currently stands around 25, more than 50% above its mean( average ).

The Q Ratio is another popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market . The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. It currently stands around 1.09 , 59% above its mean of 0.68

Crestmont P/E ratio at 27.3 . 96% above its average

The Buffet Indicator: Market Cap to GDP
The indicator remains over 2 standard deviations above its mean, currently around 128%.

(2)Risk-off Environment
Junk bonds which are a great measure of market sentiment has been lagging in recent months, and breaking down.

Technical Breakdown
(3)Long term rising channel was taken
(4)12-month average was taken
(5) Bearish divergence on momentum

To be continued...
My best regards
Technician
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Terrific article
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Technician TOP TradersClassroom
a year ago
Thanks buddy.. Finally the awaited crash is materializing..
+1 Reply
Hi, great stuff... what is your entry, SL and TP?
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Technician TOP ForexClever
a year ago
This is not a trade buddy, its a general view.
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Mirandole
a year ago
I didn't expect it will be so strong and so fast :
2007 pre-crash : Psychology of Diamond Top on #SPX500 #SPY
+1 Reply
Technician TOP Mirandole
a year ago
Yeah extreme moves, algorithmic trading buddy
+2 Reply
Posted 7 months ago. Those not blinded by the B.S. were waiting, those that were have been slaughtered.
When Credit Goes, So Does Equities
Reply
FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Expected this one also from a different perspective. The correction was inminent
SPX 500 - Long term short bias - critical level 2100
+1 Reply
Technician TOP FullTimeTrader
a year ago
Great trade buddy.. Been waiting for this for a while as well..
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Crit_Nasty
a year ago
Scary...
SPX500 -- My Predicted, "Market Meltdown of 2016-2017"

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moneymaking
a year ago
I believe the huge corrections in dow, s&p500, and nasdaq was mostly the fear and panic selling by traders reacting to China's failing economy. What matters is what happened after the quick downfall, market had no problem rising almost all way back up again. I take this to be a correction that was essential for the markets in order for them to continue higher. Are we done with the correction, we need to see stabilization in the markets before we see investors jumping back in and start buying stocks at cheaper prices. Great analysis by the way Technician, as always :)
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Technician TOP moneymaking
a year ago
Thanks mate for your view. I think it is not a good time to buy stocks, you already know i have been a bear for quite some time. I think we are not heading higher any time soon, and at least we are heading for 25% correction.
+2 Reply
dionvuletich Technician
a year ago
I agree with you tech
Reply
moneymaking Technician
a year ago
isn't any correction beyond 20% taken as bear market reversal signal?
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Technician TOP moneymaking
a year ago
More then a 20% decline is considered technically a bear market.
+1 Reply
moneymaking Technician
a year ago
I believe s&p 500 has only gone under 10% correction, correct?
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Technician TOP moneymaking
a year ago
yep 11%
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dionvuletich
a year ago
Yup, shorted this at 2104.5 with a 4 point stop, hit 2x targets already and looking for final target just above 1700

Just entered another order to short I think around 2024 from memory...? not at platform so can't check.. getting into selling rallies mode
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Technician TOP dionvuletich
a year ago
Best of luck buddy
+1 Reply
dionvuletich
a year ago
Beautiful article btw... very nice observations why it hasn't got 100+ likes I do not know....
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Technician TOP dionvuletich
a year ago
:) .. I appreciate your gratitude.
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Will Wong
a year ago
Hi, Technician, would you agree with me that starting from March 2009, we have just completed wave 3 and is in the process of seeing wave 4 unfold? That being said, once wave 4 is complete, we should look for a final wave 5 blowoff before the Big One?

A 68.2% retracement should take us to 1418 although a 38.2% retracement for a wave 4 seems more reasonable and that should take it down to 1732.
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I'm curious to read part two but it seems to be "hidden for violating one or more of TradingView's House Rules."
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