supratimbarman

SPX Back Testing the Weekly Trendline From the Lows of 2009

Short
SPCFD:SPX   S&P 500 Index
The Weekly SPX seems to be Back-Testing the Trendline extended between the Lows of week of the 2nd of March 2009 and the Low of week of the 8th of Feb 2016.

The SPX broke below the Trendline on the week of the 3rd of December 2018 and then began to Back-Test the line and eventually broke above it on the week of the 1st of April 2019, (April Fools' Day); it then broke below it again on the week of the 6th of May 2019; then again above it on the week of the 17th of June 2019 and now there has been another break down thru' the line on the week starting the 29th of July 2019.

Between the 2nd of March 2009 and week of the 22nd of October 2018, there was NO attempt made whatsoever to break the TrendLine. Every price action of the SPX stayed safely above the TrendLine. However, now we seem to see the SPX having made 3 attempts (so far), to break below this All-Important Long-Term TrendLine.

These 3 attempts have been during the weeks of the 3rd of Dec 2018, 6th of May 2019 and, just recently ,the week of the 29th of July 2019.

To me, this seems to indicate that the massive Bull Run that began in 2009, (just after the Financial Crisis triggered by the SubPrime Mortgage Era Chaos of 2007/2009, when there was a Massive Co-ordinated Global Central Bank Policy of Intervention in order to save the Stock Markets from collapsing into oblivion), is coming to an end and the SPX is in the initial stages of a Bear Market Correction, which could, in turn, into a severe Long Term Bear, given that there is EVERY indication of a Global Recession coming up over the hill in front of us.
Comment: 6th of August, 8am, London Time.

It is critically important to understand that the 2009BullRun TrendLine has been broken. HYG is falling and indicating a Top in US Equities. German and Swiss Yield Curves are Negative and nearly all US Bond Curve Pairs are at near zero.

The US Dollar Index is falling and Gold, which is a hedge in Recessionary times, is rising in price.

The SPX BackTesting to the Bull TrendLine is completed and it will now engage in targeting 2800, the June2019 low and the December 2018 lows. There maybe upward bounces and Bear Market Retractions but the glorious 10year BullRun hs come to an end.

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