The 2 major Expansion Cycles of the 20th Century, both expanded exactly +2509%. & both over exactly 18 Years from ATH Breakout!!
In this analysis, I compare the size and duration of the 2 major economic expansions cycles of the 20th Century, identifying the key components of each individual cycle to draw Observations, Parallels and Predictions with the 3rd major economic expansion cycle currently happening in the 21st Century.
Observations;
All 3 Macro Economic Cycles have 4 key Components;
Correction
A. Crash, Recession & Recovery
Expansion Phase 1;
B. Breakout from ATH
C. Double Micro Wedge
Expansion Phase 2
D. Single Macro Wedge
Parallels;
The 2 completed Expansion Cycles (1 & 2) of the 20th Century both have exactly the same traits;
1. Both start with a Correction: Crash, Recession & Recovery (of varying lengths / %)
2. Both expanded by exactly 2509% by the ATH / Next Correction, compared to previous Low (previous correction)
3. Both expansions lasted exactly 18 years from breakout of previous ATH to next ATH prior to correction
4. Both expansions were broken into 2 Phases of exactly 9 years each, defined by the same following characteristics:
a. Phase 1: First 8 years of expansion - Breakout of from ATH, succeeded & Double Micro Wedge
b. Phase 2: Second 8 years expansion - A Single Macro Wedge
Expansion Cycle 1 & 2 Details
Expansion Cycle 1: +2509% / 219 Bars
ATH Breakout: 1954 to Correction: 1972 (18 Years)
Previous ATH: 1929
Previous Market Low: 1932
Expansion Cycle 2: +2509% / 217 Bars
ATH Breakout: 1982 to Correction: 2000 (18 Years)
Previous ATH: 1972
Previous Market Low: 1974
Prediction:
Expansion Cycle 3 started in 2013, with a Break out from Previous ATH, that was quickly succeeded by a Double Micro Wedge, all leading up to today (September 2021), which is roughly the end of a Expansion Phase 1 of 9 Years (half of 18 Year historical Expansion duration)
Expansion Cycle 3; Phase 2 will start in 2022 and last until 2031, during which we could expect to see a major wedge form within the market, combined with a exponential expansion to reach a Market ATH of +2509% in 2031 (compared to previous market low in 2009) that will catalyse the next major market Correction: Crash Recession & Recovery from 2031 through subsequent years.
Expansion Cycle 3 Details
Expansion Cycle 3: +2509% / 217 Bars
ATH Breakout: 2013 to Correction: 2031 (Predicted 18 Years)
Previous ATH: 2000/2007
Previous Market Low: 2009
Conclusion;
The market is essentially a self repeating algorithm, a fractal!!
First defined by Robert W. Brooks in 1978, then first visualized by Benoit Mandelbrot in 1980, this has since been known as the Mandelbrot Set, and can be observed all across complex systems both natural and synthetic, with this mathematic miracle providing the foundation for CGI (Computer Generated Images) so advanced/complex that they can emulate real world expressions of complex natural formations such as mountains, human movement and almost anything you can think of!
Yea fractals are awesome, I've seen them a bunch while tripping and have come to understanding of their fundamental role in creating the realities & universe we experience :D
What are your thoughts?
yemala
In this analysis, I compare the size and duration of the 2 major economic expansions cycles of the 20th Century, identifying the key components of each individual cycle to draw Observations, Parallels and Predictions with the 3rd major economic expansion cycle currently happening in the 21st Century.
Observations;
All 3 Macro Economic Cycles have 4 key Components;
Correction
A. Crash, Recession & Recovery
Expansion Phase 1;
B. Breakout from ATH
C. Double Micro Wedge
Expansion Phase 2
D. Single Macro Wedge
Parallels;
The 2 completed Expansion Cycles (1 & 2) of the 20th Century both have exactly the same traits;
1. Both start with a Correction: Crash, Recession & Recovery (of varying lengths / %)
2. Both expanded by exactly 2509% by the ATH / Next Correction, compared to previous Low (previous correction)
3. Both expansions lasted exactly 18 years from breakout of previous ATH to next ATH prior to correction
4. Both expansions were broken into 2 Phases of exactly 9 years each, defined by the same following characteristics:
a. Phase 1: First 8 years of expansion - Breakout of from ATH, succeeded & Double Micro Wedge
b. Phase 2: Second 8 years expansion - A Single Macro Wedge
Expansion Cycle 1 & 2 Details
Expansion Cycle 1: +2509% / 219 Bars
ATH Breakout: 1954 to Correction: 1972 (18 Years)
Previous ATH: 1929
Previous Market Low: 1932
Expansion Cycle 2: +2509% / 217 Bars
ATH Breakout: 1982 to Correction: 2000 (18 Years)
Previous ATH: 1972
Previous Market Low: 1974
Prediction:
Expansion Cycle 3 started in 2013, with a Break out from Previous ATH, that was quickly succeeded by a Double Micro Wedge, all leading up to today (September 2021), which is roughly the end of a Expansion Phase 1 of 9 Years (half of 18 Year historical Expansion duration)
Expansion Cycle 3; Phase 2 will start in 2022 and last until 2031, during which we could expect to see a major wedge form within the market, combined with a exponential expansion to reach a Market ATH of +2509% in 2031 (compared to previous market low in 2009) that will catalyse the next major market Correction: Crash Recession & Recovery from 2031 through subsequent years.
Expansion Cycle 3 Details
Expansion Cycle 3: +2509% / 217 Bars
ATH Breakout: 2013 to Correction: 2031 (Predicted 18 Years)
Previous ATH: 2000/2007
Previous Market Low: 2009
Conclusion;
The market is essentially a self repeating algorithm, a fractal!!
First defined by Robert W. Brooks in 1978, then first visualized by Benoit Mandelbrot in 1980, this has since been known as the Mandelbrot Set, and can be observed all across complex systems both natural and synthetic, with this mathematic miracle providing the foundation for CGI (Computer Generated Images) so advanced/complex that they can emulate real world expressions of complex natural formations such as mountains, human movement and almost anything you can think of!
Yea fractals are awesome, I've seen them a bunch while tripping and have come to understanding of their fundamental role in creating the realities & universe we experience :D
- I guess the question is, will they play out in the current and future Macro Economic Cycles as well?
What are your thoughts?
yemala