SPX weekly chart has given clear signals in the past with regard to overall changes in trend.
- The 2008 recession was signaled by a clear bearish divergence on the weekly. - The 2009 bottom and reversal into a 9 year bull market was signaled by a strong bullish divergence on the weekly. - When many thought the market was crashing in late 2015/early 2016, a strong bullish divergence showed that selling momentum was done and that bullish continuation would resume.
OPERATING ASSUMPTION: The large bearish divergence on the monthly chart formed between the January and October highs indicates WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET UNTIL PROVEN OTHERWISE
PLAN: 1. Short every rally (currently 4 straight green weekly candles) until bullish divergence forms. 2. Close shorts when bull divergence forms on 1D or 4H charts. 3. Continue operating under assumption of a bear market until bullish divergence forms again on weekly chart (like 2009). 4. Go net long on index funds after said divergence is observed and confirmed.
Love your analysis, far too much bullishness around at the moment, I prefer RSI 9 on the monthly and quarterly settings but we are watching the same thing. I also wait for Coppock to signal before looking around for value again, a little more cautious than your approach but similar in style, thank you