First congratulations to Trading View member brchart, who on June 28th commented on my SPX post that the SPX June 13th top may have been wave "d" of a still developing Elliott wave Horizontal Triangle from the January 2018 peak. Great work! This could be what's happening in the SPX.
What makes this count a strong probability is the 30 minute P/C ratio. In an ideal Horizontal Triangle that corrects the progress of a bull market, sentiment should get more bearish as the triangle contracts and price rises at the "c" and "e" bottoms.
The 30 minute P/C ratio has not exceeded the high made on the February 9th bottom at 2532. But the "(C) and (E) bottoms have P/C ratios in the same general area as the February 9th reading. The reading made at the June 28th bottom is the second highest P/C ratio since February 9th, fascinating considering the SPX was 160 points higher on June 28th then it was on February 9th.
There's also Fibonacci evidence, wave (E) is close to a .382 relationship to wave (C).
Also note I have changed the degree of the Elliott wave labeling. I have modified my long term SPX Elliott wave count which I will post very soon.
Hi @brchart,
The possible EDT count that I last posted, have the most recent decline as wave (4) of the pattern is still valid.
Todays "8/2" rally has diminished this counts probability it has not been eliminated.
I'm waiting to see what happens on 8/3 and will have a post about the SPX on 8/4.
Mark
brchart
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Hey Mark... I'm charting the following below. I still think the e wave ended on June 28 and then it made five waves up for the first of the final 5th wave. I'm thinking wave 2 completed today and wave 3 is underway...it's quite impulsive. Thoughts??
brchart
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Mark - Thanks for the compliment. Anxious to see if we hold this 2800 level and go up to 3050 next.
The_Unwind
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I have not changed my Bearish overall opinion of the stock market... YET ,
just look at the financials who ARE NOT participating in this rally, sitting right on XLF support,
but I must admit that as time passes,the passage of time allows for price to consolidate upward
and simply by not going back down to the prior lows of this past winter in the S+P at 2532,
price is rising away from the danger of a significant reversal, at this time.
The amount of put buying shown by Mr. Rivest in the P/C Ratio clearly shows the market is climbing a wall of worry,
sentiment still at negative extremes it does add fuel to the fire by those traders
who must throw in the towel, admit they were wrong,and buy at increasingly higher prices.
The 7/6/18 breakout in the S+P above 2740 , after a multi day whipsaw consolidation in price,
shows that, unless reversed, the bulls are once again in control.
A run up to the next Resistance zone in the S+P at 2775 seems to be the next order of business.