Is Volatility Finally Contracting?

On the daily chart, SPX remains in a clear uptrend. Even with recent pullbacks and sideways noise, price continues to make progress higher, and volatility has been compressing. Pullbacks have been shallower, and the move up has become more orderly, which is typical of a healthy stage two advance.

Levels I’m watching

Hourly 50 SMA, and the 6,920 area as the first pullback and retest zone

6,900, if we retest deeper toward the prior zone, this is the level I want to see hold

7,000, if we keep riding higher, I’m expecting some hesitation there since it’s a major psychological level, and by then we may be extended from the hourly 10 EMA

How next week could play out

Shallow pullback, then continue
Buyers continue to step in, price holds above 6,945 (think hourly 10 and 20 EMA retests), we grind higher and keep building the right side without giving back much.

Retest the breakout, then rebuild
We dip into the 6,920–6,900 area, find support near the hourly 50 SMA, then work our way back up and try for new highs again.

Sideways digestion
After the recent push, we chop and digest between roughly 6,920 and 6,965, then the next directional move comes after price tightens up.

Bigger pullback
If 6,900 breaks, I’d look for support in the middle of that first zone I marked, then I'd reassess whether it’s just a deeper reset or a real shift in momentum.