Please be advised the current king trend here continues to be full bull though. I am in a put vertical spread favoring the long side with a probability of profit of 62%. There is a great deal to be about so my target is rather modest at 2929. From there I am confident we will most likely revisit 2985 again, as we drift sideways. You can see in the attached picture where the and fib fan meet on the 16th of Oct formation meeting the .75 fan - this would be powerful (It took Oct-Mar to break it as resistance, with 11 trading days bumping it) where if we were to retrace here I would accumulate another long.
Happy to say I am still currently on a 100% successful trading streak from March 23rd to now. Some helpful changes have been sticking to higher POP% ranging from 60-75%, anything higher for me does not warrant the amount of capital at risk to collect it. Trades lately have consistently been vertical put spreads, however I had sold some naked puts dev's out picking up some theta premium and have since covered the positions. I am afraid of the risk right now at these levels, and TVIX is too low now to continue on with that trade, I've recently reasoned. Regardless the vertical spreads have been working much better than my former strangles, so I will keep at it.
We are not there now though - I am confident we will hit ATHs however I think we will move sideways first, and then most likely retest 2810.
Incoming resistance is evident here:
A bit of a view here - we have ample reason to see it move back to 2std deviations away from the 20daySMA mean - it has been consistently doing so lately.
On the indicator front:
Z-Score - Bullish/Neutral
BB% - Neutral
Ich - - if support breaks it says new support will be 285
Weekly - Overbought, but can strongly remain at these elevated levels
For the swing trader though - I see short term momentum that I want to collect (have macro bull trend as the wind in our sails)
After hitting this target, unless I see a very inviting option I will be on the sidelines just observing.