$SPY I still see ATH with harsh resistance coming soon
Long Bias is running strong - however this is a very temporary trade for me. Target here on the April Monthly:
Please be advised the current king trend here continues to be full bull though. I am in a put vertical spread favoring the long side with a probability of profit of 62%. There is a great deal to be bearish about so my target is rather modest at 2929. From there I am confident we will most likely revisit 2985 again, as we drift sideways. You can see in the attached picture where the trend line and fib fan meet on the 16th of Oct trend line formation meeting the .75 fan - this would be powerful support area (It took Oct-Mar to break it as resistance, with 11 trading days bumping it) where if we were to retrace here I would accumulate another long.
Happy to say I am still currently on a 100% successful trading streak from March 23rd to now. Some helpful changes have been sticking to higher POP% ranging from 60-75%, anything higher for me does not warrant the amount of capital at risk to collect it. Trades lately have consistently been vertical put spreads, however I had sold some naked puts dev's out picking up some theta premium and have since covered the positions. I am afraid of the risk right now at these levels, and TVIX is too low now to continue on with that trade, I've recently reasoned. Regardless the vertical spreads have been working much better than my former strangles, so I will keep at it.
We are not there now though - I am confident we will hit ATHs however I think we will move sideways first, and then most likely retest 2810.
Incoming resistance is evident here:
A bit of a bullish view here - we have ample reason to see it move back to 2std deviations away from the 20daySMA mean - it has been consistently doing so lately.
On the indicator front:
MA - Bullish
McGinley - Bullish
Z-Score - Bullish/Neutral
BB% - Neutral
Ich - Bullish - if support breaks it says new support will be 285
STOCH
Daily - Bearish
Weekly - Overbought, but can strongly remain at these elevated levels
For the swing trader though - I see short term momentum that I want to collect (have macro bull trend as the wind in our sails)
After hitting this target, unless I see a very inviting option I will be on the sidelines just observing.
Please be advised the current king trend here continues to be full bull though. I am in a put vertical spread favoring the long side with a probability of profit of 62%. There is a great deal to be bearish about so my target is rather modest at 2929. From there I am confident we will most likely revisit 2985 again, as we drift sideways. You can see in the attached picture where the trend line and fib fan meet on the 16th of Oct trend line formation meeting the .75 fan - this would be powerful support area (It took Oct-Mar to break it as resistance, with 11 trading days bumping it) where if we were to retrace here I would accumulate another long.
Happy to say I am still currently on a 100% successful trading streak from March 23rd to now. Some helpful changes have been sticking to higher POP% ranging from 60-75%, anything higher for me does not warrant the amount of capital at risk to collect it. Trades lately have consistently been vertical put spreads, however I had sold some naked puts dev's out picking up some theta premium and have since covered the positions. I am afraid of the risk right now at these levels, and TVIX is too low now to continue on with that trade, I've recently reasoned. Regardless the vertical spreads have been working much better than my former strangles, so I will keep at it.
We are not there now though - I am confident we will hit ATHs however I think we will move sideways first, and then most likely retest 2810.
Incoming resistance is evident here:
A bit of a bullish view here - we have ample reason to see it move back to 2std deviations away from the 20daySMA mean - it has been consistently doing so lately.
On the indicator front:
MA - Bullish
McGinley - Bullish
Z-Score - Bullish/Neutral
BB% - Neutral
Ich - Bullish - if support breaks it says new support will be 285
STOCH
Daily - Bearish
For the swing trader though - I see short term momentum that I want to collect (have macro bull trend as the wind in our sails)
After hitting this target, unless I see a very inviting option I will be on the sidelines just observing.
Trade closed: target reached:
Very successful trade. Closed out the trade after taking profits yesterday on the puts & and selling my calls this morning. Profit on both legs. I was confident the selloff yesterday was overdone and the close was too bullish yesterday to not stay long. Happy I did. +22% trade that raised entire account by 7%.
Trade closed: target reached:
FYI today was exactly one month away from my last loss in a trade. Fun managing a stable of winners.
