There are always alternate Elliott wave counts. I've been illustrating an extended Elliott wave Impulse pattern up from the 03/23/20 bottom. This count is still valid but there is an alternative illustrated in todays post.
This pattern helps explain why a major SPX top may have been made at the 09/02/21 all-time high of 4545.85
Prior posts have noted that the SPX March 2009 to April 2010 rally appears to be Primary wave "1" of a impulse pattern that could terminate in 2021.
There's usually a Fibonacci relationship between waves "one" and "five" of Elliott motive patterns.
The growth rate of Primary wave "1" was 82.9% multiplied by the Fibonacci ratio of .50 yields a growth rate of 41.45%.
An Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle may have formed from February 2020 to October 2020. The calculations for fifth waves after Horizontal Triangles usually begin from the termination point, which in this case is the low point of wave (E).
A growth rate of 41.45% from 3233.94 targets SPX 4574 the all-time high on 09/02/21 was 4545. Considering the growth coordinates for this calculation are from more than ten years ago, 4545 is within leeway of the long-term target.
If this wave count is correct a multi-year bear market may begun.
The unwary bulls could soon get the shock of their lives.
To paraphrase the tag line from "Star Wars"
"May the shorts be with you!"
Mark
This pattern helps explain why a major SPX top may have been made at the 09/02/21 all-time high of 4545.85
Prior posts have noted that the SPX March 2009 to April 2010 rally appears to be Primary wave "1" of a impulse pattern that could terminate in 2021.
There's usually a Fibonacci relationship between waves "one" and "five" of Elliott motive patterns.
The growth rate of Primary wave "1" was 82.9% multiplied by the Fibonacci ratio of .50 yields a growth rate of 41.45%.
An Elliott wave - Horizontal Triangle may have formed from February 2020 to October 2020. The calculations for fifth waves after Horizontal Triangles usually begin from the termination point, which in this case is the low point of wave (E).
A growth rate of 41.45% from 3233.94 targets SPX 4574 the all-time high on 09/02/21 was 4545. Considering the growth coordinates for this calculation are from more than ten years ago, 4545 is within leeway of the long-term target.
If this wave count is correct a multi-year bear market may begun.
The unwary bulls could soon get the shock of their lives.
To paraphrase the tag line from "Star Wars"
"May the shorts be with you!"
Mark