The 40 month EMA has served as uptrend support throughout the history of bull markets in both the S&P 500 and DJIA. There have been many tests of this level throughout the bull markets of 1942-1966, 1974-2000, and 2009-2018. Barring a massive rally by the end of December 2018 this will break the 40 month EMA ending the 2009-2018 bull market. The hope is this is a false breakout like in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis and we continue higher. If this is indeed the end of wave 5 there is no legitimate way to estimate where the new low would be. Expect debt levels to become unserviceable, a consumer awakening, and the ever creeping climate catastrophe to collapse the world economic system.
i think we're in wave 4 still of the larger 5 you have on you chart, one more up shot (2 to 3 years ??) after this wave 4 finishes which will likely still see higher highs and still a lower low this year. Guess will see how it plays out, but I don't think your larger 5 is done yet. A few years to prepare still. Hopefully.