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DaddySawbucks
Jul 19, 2022 1:29 AM

How Low Will it Go?! Short

S&P 500 IndexTVC

Description

Look to the 2020 correction zig-zag to form bottoming price structure. Getting crushed to capitulation in October would be the usual outcome.

Timeline for the bear likely will be in the 9-11 month range, bottoming on October or early November. Typical bear is nine months, rarely >15.

RSI would get crushed well under 20%. Short -term oversold condition could provoke a weak rally; short onto any rally going forward imo.

Be ready to enter longs in 4th quarter. Do not get onboard too soon, do not FOMO my friends. There will be plenty of time for longs after.

Better to miss the bus than get run over by it, eh?! Be wary when bottomfishing! GLTA!!

Comment

Shorting the gap qqq 293p, added 290p; six each

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Closed it all for push insanely pumptarded.

Trade active

-10 Jul-20-22 $291 Puts
+10 Jul-22-22 $296 Puts
net debit $3

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Add 5 spreads

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Closed the damned thing took small hit rolled into 296 and pushed it for a flat. Astounding how they bull the gdmnd thing.
An obvious trap but the squeeze is ferocious.
Watch, wait.

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I spose a stupid rally may boost over 4k and close the June gap at 4118. Perhaps breaking up from near-term bottom. Nutty rallies in bear markets kill shortz, be carefull fgs.

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Nuts!

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Triple top formation under 4k. There is a gap at 4018 remaining to fill and I'm reluctant to enter any shortz until it does. Could be today imo.

Slight opening weakness almost certainly technical profit-taking. Dip buyers anxious with FOMO...

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Played a few calls then caught a small short on the pullback. IDK bout this, can still try one more push to close the 4018 gap, I thought it would get there today.

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50 pips to close the june gap here

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Expect a blowoff to close the gap but im holding nothin overnite; glta

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Exhaustion gap, pump n dump imo

Trade active

Flipped 20 qqq puts in open, +1k fast. Now dicey no position, might get higher before lower

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Overnite futurz had spx around 3930 and we got that right away. Now is crapshoot. could bull again then sell, wait, watch. Small positions!

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Flipped few calls then few more puts, choppy whipsaw typical of topping action. Does feel like a 4th wave in minor impulsive wave from Tues. I do expect higher Fri.

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Lol needed calls again, imagine that!?! Holding onto gains really hate to give it back EOD... :-(
Damned meltups!

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NB: Only index up today is NAZ. RUT, DJT, DJI all modestly lower. SPY lifts b/c it's 25% NAZ.
Looks, feels like a fourth. No big shortz yet.

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NB: DJI closed gap now +3

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Bully now 30 pips from gapfill at 4018
Comments
Imdmagic1
Robots, friend. These insane swings would be only 1% or so per day (which is nuts enough), but the algorithms push it to 2-3pts. Simply insane...and indicative of a very unhealthy market environment.
hungry_hippo
Time to draw up a new chart buddy.

I had cryptos going down until the Fed, but changed up my chart this morning. The drop yesterday afternoon was just a gap fill on NQ, nothing more
DaddySawbucks
@hungry_hippo, yeah we got a runaway gap today, never filled, probly gonna bull for a week eh
hungry_hippo
BTW, you were right about NFLX earnings.... not as bad as expected, lol.... up AH
DaddySawbucks
@hungry_hippo, yeah those $30 puts gonna be $4 in am, i didnt touch em
vshee1ocdsd
You would be surprised. 3 years at least
aliengr116
@DaddySawbucks is this still bear market rally?. Earnings are not great still they are pushing up.. how high can we go?.
DaddySawbucks
@aliengr116, yes; a bit more
hungry_hippo
No point in holding anything overnight, probably a flat open.

ECB meeting premarket tomorrow, but the Euros couldn;t take US futures down today, just opened flat
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