Ludwig_Von_Mises

S&P 500 versus Gold

Short
The 1.5-year-old declining resistance line (magenta) has proven too strong for the 4 year rising support (blue) which was broken just last week due to the record drop in the US indices. The drop was due to a combination of a market that had been overzealous and priced to perfection in an increasingly deteriorating economic environment. The coronavirus certainly added fear to the markets as it is looking increasingly likely that the service sector globally is going to get hit pretty hard in the coming months.

This break-down of a 5-year consolidation, especially with an initial fake breakdown and fake breakout attempt, appears to be hinting at gold outperformance over stocks over the next 12-24 months. The ratio needs to continue putting in lower highs and lower lows to validate the gold>SPX thesis. Central banks response to the carnage in stock markets is going to tell us a lot. How stocks and gold respond to the shift in monetary policy will also be extremely valuable data.

I want to stress that with this SPX to Gold Ratio, SPX / XAUUSD ratio, is that we don't know if this pattern is going to break higher or break lower. Breaking higher into a hyper mania similar to 2000 Dotcom is still possible, the next few months will be telling us, but it's also possible we're near the limit that this current stock bubble can maintain. Rates and economic growth were a lot higher in the 90s which you could argue enabled/justified the massive overvaluation. And by many measures (not at all) the current markets are the most overstretched that they've ever been. For example value versus growth is the most skewed its ever been in favor of growth. Commodities are basing at 40-year lows. The gold mining sector versus their own product is the most undervalued it has ever been. If you think gold has the potential to rise 20%, 50%, 150% or more in the coming 1-5 years, then a position in both the metal and the mining sector is a no brainer. Utilizing funamdental and technical analysis we can find the best companies and make timely and strategic purchases over time. Your odds of making a profit are better when you buy something when it is cheaper than normal. Everyone's piling into what's done well for the past several years - that's classic momentum investing and can cost you dearly if we're near a significant top in US indices. I much prefer buying things when they're on fire sale.

Be watching how central banks respond and how gold and spx respond to the central banks. This multi-year triangle consolidation is coming to an end and when these triangles breakout in a direction, it is not uncommon for it to be followed by extremely volatile moves in the direction of the breakout that can last for years.