First try at a model projection system across price and time that has, so far, accurately estimated dates. This is the second model which is based on time and price symmetry.
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2560 Rally Top by Jan 15th is based off of retracements -that's the only price level that isn't set from the model
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Well - Since my personal top estimate was terrible - I decided to look at the price guidelines for Jan 15th that I used for the rest of the model - This model is suggesting 2696 on January 15th
2008 was roughly 518 days for a roughly 58% drop. 200 was roughly 850 days for a roughly 51% drop. You are calling for a drop of over 50% from current levels in the next 70ish days??? I am bearish and we may very well hit those levels in the coming 12-18 months but we have to crash out the 2300 level, 2100 level, 1800 level, 1550 level, 1350 level, etc. These kind of drops are measured in years.
J-Streak
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@mbehrens87, this is way too specific to be something I just drew up myself - I built a model which is based on very specific cycles structures through history, and uses math to calculate price and time ratios and give projections... So I am not calling for anything - I am sharing the results that my model built... It seems extreme, I'm aware... So extreme, in case it is right I'd need to make a post such as this one to prove it's accuracy in the future lol- cause who is gonna believe me after the fact? This model projected Dec 24th as the low (it happened the 26th)... my earlier model said Dec 28th... Early Model gave 2/18-2/22 as an initial panic bottom... This one shows 2/14 and 2/25... very close to one another - I guess we will see what the future holds
@edub91026, If we were to follow the exact pattern of the 2008 crash, timeframe and all, we would hit a re-test of current lows in the second week of February. 2700 area would then come back into play in late April. We would retest the lows again between June and August, breaking through and heading down to 2100 by the end of 2019. Ultimate low would be in by the first half of 2020 between 1500-1200. I agree with price pattern, I just think it will be further extended. Excited to see how this all plays out. Hopefully we are both wrong but money is to be made either way. Cheers!
J-Streak
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@mbehrens87, I enjoyed reading this feedback - your obersavation is similar to what I have built the time aspect of this model on.. I believe that, even though durations of market cycles vary, the time ratio between major points is constant.. I think I found this ratio, that's how this model was built... Now since we are discussing the 08 market - let's review 1. off it's peak, how long it took to arrive at the same place, and 2. after the initial channel break, the price movement that immediately followed... all the things leading to that initial bottom are very different - hence why rather than building a classic bear market structure, I did a crash market structure... it has more crash characteristics at the moment... I should make a standard bear market version and let you see the difference - your feedback is greatly appreciated!