Looks just like Feb 2-10, just playing at lower price. CPI numbers next week can crush this hopium rally. ERs coming later likely to disappoint and guidance has hardly been rosy so far, can't expect much imo.
Stupid happy fool rally not getting much higher imo, just another bottomfishing bull trap. Still waiting for capitulation and real panic, dip buyers not fully crushed yet. RSI back at rollover level.
Time and price projections suggest a lower low in late July. Follow the TL. Fat Lady didn't sing yet...
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PS: Overlay from 9-24 Feb. A drop of similar magnitude would carry price down ~3460; capitulation low.
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A contributor remarked that screenshots of the same economic news item in popular media show it 'accounted for' both fall and rise of prices on six occasions over 24hrs, lol; here are choice others:
"US stocks were higher Thursday as jobless claims rose to their highest levels since January. " (YAY! Fed will have to ease! BUY STONKS!)
"Analysts' per-share earnings estimates for the next 12 months will likely be revised lower over the course of the Q2 earnings season, which could weigh on share prices, Oxford Economics said in a research note." (YAY! These ERs will be the worst ever, so it can't get any moar bad! BUY STONKS!)
"Wall Street benchmarks rose on Thursday, as investors reacted positively to the previous day's commentary from the U.S. Federal Reserve which hinted the central bank's aggressive pace of interest rate hikes could be tempered if growth suffered." (YAY! J-Powell will dial it back! BUY STONKS!)
Unemployment > up, inflation > up, rates > up and more hikes coming, but Hopium reaction: BUY STONKS!!! Why not?! The only game in town... testing DTL at the 50 DMA... CPI will be the test IMO
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LOL look at the gap fill, flipped a few calls on it, nuts!
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Wish we could get more bad news to drive the damned price higher! Lay it on baddies!!
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Flipped some puts on QQQ. Not chasing it, looks like a falling wedgie, might get another absurd bounce into EOD
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Look at the shorts scramble to cover... EOD short entry opportunity imo, trade lightly.
Opening 200 SPXS covered call write short the Jul 26c, net debit 23.80 x200
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Not going hog wild on Fri EOD lol. Cheers!
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LOL shoulda gone wild Fri. Shorted the retracement and added EOD monday. Let's see...
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Getting red trading at night, shortseller's delight...
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Cheated again. Red all night and opens gap up. Closed all out.
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Made up half the drawdown on scalper short ffs. CPII tomorrow. no position.
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Fkg whipsawing
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I shorted the pm bounce and closed part of the position at 3:55, kept a 2 put runner. Not so confident of another massive gap, lousy CPI probably already priced in.
Bought gas n groceries today and realized price of evrything has exactly doubled in six months.
Trade closed: target reached
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Closed shorts rolled into calls for scalper trade, closed those, done and out. Gonna whipsaw and just take ur money back imo.
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Pretty limited reaction considering how lousy the CPI was; imo it was just about priced in. Gonna get a rally soon.
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Nice gapfill! LOL I carried one call...
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Red > Green; if it holds to EOD probly gonna move higher imo. NOT chasing either way. Made bank, like to keep it!
do you think we fill that gap to 4020 first or no?
DaddySawbucks
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@tacosaurus, Ofc is possible but the pinbar at 3945 on 6/27 might be the showstopper
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@DaddySawbucks, mm, for sure. actually if it /does/ fail there and doesn't fill the gap above, that would be a huge negative and could easily send it to a new fresh low. such a pita to predict where these bear rallies will die. I do feel we need to retest 3650 again before we have a real bottom and/or a big vix spike. however with commodities dropping, this should be good ofr the inflation narrative, but wow that dollar.... dxy looks like 120 could be in the cards and that'd easily suck 10% or more out of spx... going ot be an interesting month, that's for sure!
hungry_hippo
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RTY still needs a gap fill above, should've held your calls
DaddySawbucks
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@hungry_hippo, I like cash quite a lot tyvm. ON 28 Jun RTY reached 1795. The gap you're looking at was 1800 close with LOTD 1790. Not gonna split that hair, lol. Might or might not ever get there anytime soon. Anything can happen in ERs now.
hungry_hippo
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Open futures gap from Sunday afternoon
hungry_hippo
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NQ went oversold on MFI pre-market on the short term chart. Market tanked the afternoon before CPI release last month....