codypd
Long

Crash watch: not complacent enough

SP:SPX   S&P 500 Index
Chart shows my "Market Freakout Indicator" which is a daily-only indicator.

(Edit: here is what 2007 looked like -> https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPX/DeBTWIms-The-2007-Complacency-followed-by-freakout/)

I built it months ago to detect complacency conditions for a crash / correction.

IMO             , these months of sideways grind have reset expectations and positioning such that very few people are living in the frothy euphoria that precedes big falls. Namely, the % of S&P             100 and S&P 500             companies trading above and below 50 and 200 DMAs now oscillates around 50%. Who is euphoric about that? Not the individual investors who fill out the AAII survey - only 20% are bullish in the latest survey (http://www.aaii.com/).

Then there is the fact that the US Federal Reserve's Primary Dealers will have 115 Billion dollars hitting their accounts (thanks Fed!) in the next 10 days. Wonder what they will do with it? Graph the M2 money supply and the S&P             and see what liquidity does to asset prices.

The great reckoning will come. I am no cheerleader when it comes to this economy. Nonetheless, markets aren't on the cusp of a crash/correction. With the defensive posture of most investors (which are reflected in the numbers and the price action), they are more likely to see their money they put into put-buying and inverse ETF longs taken by the banksters spending those government checks. When they goose the market to multiple all time highs and get everything above their 200 DMA's, they will be selling. Then the AAII survey will be 80% bullish - as sure a sign as a Cramer "buy buy buy" to go short.
"IMO, these months of sideways grind have reset expectations and positioning such that very few people are living in the frothy euphoria that precedes big falls"

Couldn't agree more, very well said.
+2 Reply
codypd SPYderCrusher
Thanks!
+1 Reply
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