"Believe it" is a technical pattern I recently stumbled upon thanks to another astute investor. While I'm not strictly following it, the factors involved have allowed me to tweak parameters and observe for any information value. Hence, this week's title dedication.
Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) remains my primary and governing perspective for understanding where stocks are in both price level, AND TIME, using historic SPX to generally represent stock prices. Within EWT it is vital to understand sentiment and related factors influencing it. In that area, multiple indicators are accumulating to align as favorable backdrop for a wave 5 movement. "Believe it" is yet another indicator to help affirm evidence of behavior within market information flow reflecting sentiment.
Quite simply by using common sense, and less technical, on Friday 4/13 there was low volume and a very real threat of confrontation about Syria. Yet, Bears and skittish sellers failed to move prices lower. Conversely, hedged bulls and those sidelined with cash are just waiting for the storm to blow over to unwind hedges and deploy cash. Add in corporate buybacks now that earning period blackouts are ending and it should be pretty clear where the catalysts are for wave 5.
Hi, and thanks for the post. I too believe we are in for higher highs before things moderate / flatten. You can also add in that Pres Trump has now broached the subject of re-entering TPP, which may bode well for foreign trade and the ongoing economic growth currently in play around the world.
Also seems that DJI and NASDAQ will move in concert with S&P, no?
Keep up the good work.
iamthewolf
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@satertrading, Thanks. Nasdaq has been leading and generally is followed afterwards by SPX, then DJI. Others have been leading the current move to already rise above earlier peaks, including Nasdaq (IXIC), IWM, IHI, etc.
satertrading
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@iamthewolf, thanks, and can you elaborate more on the “believe it” technical pattern? I can infer some things from your RSI and MACD indicators and the particular inputs you use on them...but is here more?
iamthewolf
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@satertrading, It is the name of a pattern based on Advance-Decline smoothed average that fits a specific profile for time, trend and magnitude of change. I have taken the high level understanding and modified it using charts (TardingView). Technically my read is NOT exactly the originators formula. However, imo there is adequate information value in my modifications, which I'm still assessing and then back testing.
satertrading
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@iamthewolf, Interesting...looking forward to hearing more as your research develops.
Also seems that DJI and NASDAQ will move in concert with S&P, no?
Keep up the good work.