Today SPX killed a lot of bears. It’s impressive, and I understand the bear’s point. With all the problems the world is facing right now, how could this bull trend persist? Well, I have no idea, all I know it is a bull trend and that’s what I’ve been warning you guys since I started to write my analyses here. First, I invite you to follow me to keep updated about our trades and analyses, I’m every day here, and I’m sure you’ll find something interesting.
Those who follows me know that I’m a bull, I have my portfolio and I bought more stocks on Friday. Check my social media for more details. My stocks are performing very well, thank you very much, despite of my personal beliefs about the market. As I said, I get the bears, but my trading style is reactive, not predictive, and I just do what the chart tell me to do. I’ll talk openly about my stocks in future posts. I’ve already analyzed two of them here (links below), but the remaining I just mentioned briefly on my social media, so remember to follow me there too!
Now SPX is testing a resistance zone again, which is the previous tops and the 61.8% fib retracement, and it did a higher high than these tops. All of this are very strong bullish signs, and it seems it will close slightly above the fib retracement. A stronger bullish sign would be if it close above the higher high of Apr 29’s candle, but that’s ok. At the hourly chart you can see my concerns:
The price found support at the “support zone” and did a false breakout of the purple trendline. Now we see that it is very important for the price to close above this pink line (Apr. 29 top), because the market may see a triple top here, and this could sink the price all the way back to the “support zone”. In any case, I wouldn’t short SPX to hedge my positions, I prefer to buy VIX, but only tomorrow we will know if the bulls will win this battle.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts; - Trades with clear risk management; - The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology; - Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
I think there's a good chance we do, in fact, close above there and negate the bear's belief in a triple top. But you're right, we're at a bit of a crossroads and nothing is certain. If we confirm the bull above the Apr 29 high, where do you see our next leg up taking us, in your own opinion/chart analysis?
Nathan_Black
⋅
@farmerisland, Hello farmerisland! That's a good question, and if we look at the daily chart it seems the previous top at 3136 is a good candidate for the next resistance.
Let's see how SPX will behave tomorrow.
Thanks man. Best regards.
azdevil
⋅
Looks good, but what happens if the futures GAP up tonight, may there be a short covering rally, seems like it might be to obvious that it should go down, meaning the shorts probably piled on at EOD. What is your twitter handle , I found nathan_black but it was a guy fishing with a Bass Fish
azdevil
⋅
@azdevil, Also, I saw your BTC chart, so you are saying hold. I am not smart enough to buy real Bitcoin, so I have this ETF GBTC which is up nicely
Nathan_Black
⋅
@azdevil, That's good, Grayscale seems to be a well managed fund.
Nathan_Black
⋅
@azdevil, azdevil, nice to have you here again! Yes, that's a risk that always haunts me as a swing trader, but I'm used to it. I've been here on the market for about 7 years now, and I'm prepared for it, psychologically/financially. If the time comes, then I'll just do my hedge, as usual. Also, my handle is @thefinancehydra.
My best regards.