Flow as changed, looking for a bear market to ensue! all my bullish ideas on TV are to be deemed CANCELLED until things change!
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Got to admit I got scared at the double top. There was some considerable opportunistic dumping up there. Longer term buyers have proven not so impressable, therefore & until anything changes the model is actually VALID.
intermediate term target for #es_f 4530
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4530 reached. looking for a swing short op
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untill it becomes support, the upper channel line IS resistance...
@CJS04, it should be obvious what i looking for... doesn't mean I predict it to be so, but it's what I'm looking for in any case... a "slow" but steady grind along the channel line with a top around early 2023... if fractal keeps going i go with it, if it breaks above channel than things have taken other path and will re-assess... same if it starts behaving wild and crazy leaning on the downside... but so far NOTHING has changed... there is not top to call and there is no Blow-off parabolic rise either... I look at your chart and i have no idea whatsoever how does it say 2900 ... anyway, mine says above 5k... I'm happy to be wrong if the market shows any erratic behaviour on the up or down side Until that happens "go with the flow " is the title and says it all basically. pe's dont matter, chart patterns don't matter, wave counts don't matter, fundamentals don't matter, fed don't matter, same for interest rates and neither do covid variants, political promises or stated wills! Nothing matters until it shows behaviours out of pattern. all the rest is guessingology and non-sense!
CJS04
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@LotusTrading20, Good luck with your plan. My 2800s come from the trend since 2009. Follow the trend. Follow the clues. Good luck with whatever it is you see. Putting a box from a period in 2013 and looking for it to repeat that out of pattern, well... as long as you own it, its your idea and accept responsibility for it, then all is good with your own plan.
LotusTrading20
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@CJS04, as i see in your image it goes only back to 2016... i have a channel too and it's also about 2700/2800, but only if it hit really fast... otherwise , even a channel revisit, at a later stage, would be probably higher.. and we had revisit down there one year ago... the first since 2009... why and how something that took 10 years to happen would happen now again in 1 year?
and my box is not just a box, it's about cycles: high volatility - some vol - low vol!
Liquidity is what moves markets, and volatility is a function of liquidity, if the market just entered a period of low vol or high liquidity, why try and call tops? that trendline may not be revisited again in 5/10 years, there's no way to know. staying out of this is ok, for fundamentals are stretched etc, but shorting this, out of the blue is getting ahead of things for what they are. is what I call "belief" trading decisions. i agree that I can get a pie in the face at some point, if i was counting waves maybe covid crash was wave 4 and we are in 5 and heading to the cliff... I'm not a stubborn bull: "nothing matters"/ "fed has my back" ! i just believe its more interesting to go with the flow until signs appear of exhaustion... and patient traders like yourself would benefit from a deep dive to 2800, but in all honesty, Im not sure, if we head there, that it holds... again... specially if it were to happen so fast...
CJS04
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@LotusTrading20, it actually goes back further.. let me zoom out..
True it does not have to hold in the 2800s... it could come down lower... I don't think that is a terrible idea to if nothing else start entering. The two orange lines are gaps, if you believe in gap fills. I do believe not always but the majority of the time they fill especially if in an area of interest. Looking at the trend, you can not get much more aggressive then this. This is a pretty aggressive ascending channel. So unless we go in for a total collapse, I think this pretty much holds the channel. It needs to come back to earth to make sense though. Vertical is not a trend. Is not sustainable. Vertical is most associated with pump n dump and the term "crash". It can carve the way for the future but can sustain.
CJS04
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@LotusTrading20, lets take a look at XLF... which has alot to do with the indexes.
I come to a similar conclusion. Lets look at QQQ and SPY... I see SPY in the 280s. Everything pretty much comes to similar scenarios. I can even look at stocks and come to similar conclusions. HD... That needs to be to 200 if not 160s. Follow the trends. But what if we are forgetting the last 12 years.... we are going to do whole new trends. I will entertain that thought for a second.. well, you need a trend again. A ceiling and a floor. Vertical is not a trend. So where is the floor. Well, that ascending channel, can it really get more aggressive than what is has been? I can't see a trend that would allow that. I mean a straight vertical channel? lol. That's why for me.. I think the end is very near. Fundamentally I agree..things dont add up. Chart wise, they do not. They want the limit lifted off or paused so they can borrow more money to prop things up. Nah, you need to start tapering and knock this nonsense off. Let the market tank, they will catch it when the time is right. They did the last several times. Why would this time be any different? We just need that healthy drop. Things got way to far ahead of itself fundamentally, chart wise, every way. We have unemployment ending, housing in a bubble with sales dropping off... not just here. Everywhere around the world. It's time to reel it in. Housing, I dont expect a 2008 crash but I do expect a pullback. The market, it needs that 30%+ drop.. yes, it will be brought back up.. but it needs it to make sense and cool things off. Allow new entries, etc. I would never touch the market long at this point. That's financial suicide unless going in small and you will check back in ten years. Just my opinion.. I could be wrong but as they say, follow the chart. Things always have a way of happening that keeps the chart in tact and at this point things need to drop to have the chart make any kind of sense. Currently, it does not ...
CJS04
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Tradingview is being weird with charts showing up.. lets try this.. XLF attempt again. Looks a bit extended and like it needs to do a re-test of the breakout area.
LotusTrading20
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@CJS04, interesting you bring it to my attention... there's so much to follow in markets, one can't just follow everything... so this one finally took the 2008 highs, I'm truly surprised to learn it!
CJS04
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@LotusTrading20, yeah.. finally took it and in my opinion is topping out and needs to start heading down soon. Not saying there is nothing left but I think it is minimal and risk vs reward just isnt there, nor the energy and time. Just my thoughts, could always be wrong but why would it break a 12 year trend and keep going. Again, a pretty agressive trend and vertical is not a trend. It needs to come find a base and can it get more agressive than the last 12 years? Not really? If anything, I would think its worry if it can hold at the green area/ orange area. But seeing how the fed loves to come to the rescue, I would think they would show up and turn the printers back on or maybe its Biden..something happens. He is going on 79 after all. Not sure what the "excuse" will be to bring things down but I am sure there will be one.
LotusTrading20
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@CJS04, seems like things as changed... as of now not expecting just a pullback... still early but the "flare" generally is right!