We have clear technical indications that the S&P500 has ended its longterm impulsive uptrend in 1999-2000. Since then we have embarked in a series of corrective waves, with very clear fear spikes surrounding intense stock market crashes.
Rgmov helps filter the noise and tells me that the current advance is short lived, while time at mode suggests that we might see a rally emerge from this sideways range that might extend to 2202.62 (based on the projection from the low of the last 5 week low that wasn't penetrated by sellers as of today, up into the mode, which is 2085.44. Any fast advance from this area, or a weekly bar with a low higher than this price on close will confirm the rally.
The Elliott Wave analysts might consider the expanding formation on chart as a terminal wedge, and if the completion of the last portion of it triggers a sharp decline then it's possible that we witness a retrace of the whole advance since October 2013, in 1/4 of the time it took to climb to the top.
In the short term, I'll be looking for intraday opportunities on the long side, but, I suggest watching the price action once we approach the 2202 target for the top.
I'm studying possible pair trades to short the S&P500 while going long something else. Catching the exact top will be considerably difficult.
Will update with any setups, for now, they would have to be, either intraday/short term, or long only, but no such thing has surfaced yet. (at least per my criteria)
IvanLabrie
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Last push up was minimal, but it seems like this outlook changed and the terminal completed earlier than expected.
IvanLabrie
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IvanLabrie
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Long isn't a bad idea. 1/2 position size
IvanLabrie
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Same as the Dow, I expect rallying here for a couple months.
IvanLabrie
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Same setup as the Dow Jones, timing is a max of 9 bar decline, target is 2045.4.
The area is one of strong support, both from a vix spike 75% retrace, as well as from a monthly range expansion bar.
(Do note that this level is currently where the 253 EMA sits)
I'll attemp the long if we reach this target ahead of time, with a stop loss at 2034.
Target is 2202.62 initially, but it can rally a bit higher too.
IvanLabrie
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Entered long after the bearish setup failed.
2103, stop at 2081.43.
TP at 2172.5 (partial)
mikeoakster
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Hi, Ivan! A nice number could be 2213 (C = A * 1,618).
IvanLabrie
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IvanLabrie
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Rgmov is telling us MSFT has topped.
It might find support soon, and reach the target on chart, but upside is limited, and only if price moves above the weekly mode on chart.
A move under the range expansion support and below 41.77 would be bad news for the bulls.
zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-03/fed-admits-economy-cant-function-without-bubbles
(This matches my 1999-2000 top as seen in Rgmov)
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-03/microsoft-s-offshore-profit-pile-surges-past-100-billion-mark
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-03/california-regulator-mary-nichols-may-transform-the-auto-industry
I'm studying possible pair trades to short the S&P500 while going long something else. Catching the exact top will be considerably difficult.
Will update with any setups, for now, they would have to be, either intraday/short term, or long only, but no such thing has surfaced yet. (at least per my criteria)